Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
Ethics
"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Category Archives: Simulation
Corona Sweden – Herd Immunity matters
Sweden, and particularily the Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, as well as his predecessor/mentor Johan Giesecke, have received huge amounts of critizism for the “Swedish Strategy” fighting Corona. A key component of Tegnell’s & Giesecke’s rationale for not recommending Lockdown … Continue reading
Posted in Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
Tagged Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
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MCMC “Internals” – fitting the data
Lately, I’ve been puzzling over how exactly MCMC fits the data of the likelihood, that is, how exactly is that fitting done by the various tools implementing MCMC. So, this post is maily about MCMC Internals, not about how to … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Math, MCMC, Probability, Simulation
Tagged Bayes, MCMC, Probability, programming, Python, software
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My Corona prediction – retrospective : “Prediction is (not ?) difficult, particularily (not ?) about the future…
Predictions are easy in the sense that anyone can predict anything, if you never bother to check the outcome of your predictions. So let’s do so here, check how my prediction from about a month back on the number of … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Probability, PYMC, Research, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC, Research, Statistics
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Corona – Sweden and Netherlands – the Anomalies
[UPDATE: Added Germany + Canada] [All data from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Noticed a couple of interesting patterns when I put the growth rates for Confirmed and Deceased on the same chart, for a set of countries: Let’s start by looking … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Culture, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Simulation, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Society, Statistics
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Corona – What’s the true Mortality Rate, and how many infected are there, anyways…? [in all likelihood, some good news!]
[Note: this is a somewhat technical / mathematical article, so those of you who only want the daily Corona updates, “the current numbers”, might want to skip this one] As we all probably know by now, the official numbers on … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Finance, Pandas, Probability, Pystan, Python, Research, Simulation, Society, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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Corona outbreak – why isolation of infected people matters
Just hacked a simple simulation on the spread and effects of a virus, like the Corona virus that is in voque as we speak. The model is very simple, with the following assumptions/constants: The population size is constant, in the … Continue reading
Posted in Big Government, Epidemics, Probability, Simulation
Tagged Epidemics, Probability, Simulation
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Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball
As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, Machine Learning, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Gambling, Machine Learning, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, Simulation, sports, Statistics, Technology
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Capturing NMEA sentences over WiFi using Python
In order to figure out how the NMEA-WiFi Gateway deals with clients, e.g. if it expects any “handshake” or any other communication setup protocol, I decided to write a simulator mimicing the gateway, and then using iRegatta 2 from Zifago … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Maritime Technology, Nautical Information Systems, NMEA, Numpy, performance, Python, Simulation, TCPIP
Tagged Communication, Data Analysis, iRegatta2, Network, NMEA, Numpy, performance, programming, Python, Simulation, sports, TCP/IP, Technology
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Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?
As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships. By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Finance, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Probability, programming, Python, Science, Simulation, sports, Statistics
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Scientific Gambling – how do betting shops make money….?
Betting shops are commercial businesses, that is, they want to and must make money in order to survive. Like any other business. So take a casino as an example: they make money – in the long run – by having … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Pystan, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Gambling, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, sports, Statistics
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 