Category Archives: Simulation

Corona – Sweden and Netherlands – the Anomalies

[UPDATE: Added Germany + Canada] [All data from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Noticed a couple of interesting patterns when I put the growth rates for Confirmed and Deceased on the same chart, for a set of countries: Let’s start by looking … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Culture, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Simulation, Society, Statistics, Sverige | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Corona – What’s the true Mortality Rate, and how many infected are there, anyways…? [in all likelihood, some good news!]

[Note: this is a somewhat technical / mathematical article, so those of you who only want the daily Corona updates, “the current numbers”, might want to skip this one] As we all probably know by now, the official numbers on … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Finance, Pandas, Probability, Pystan, Python, Research, Simulation, Society, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Corona outbreak – why isolation of infected people matters

Just hacked a simple simulation on the spread and effects of a virus, like the Corona virus that is in voque as we speak. The model is very simple, with the following assumptions/constants: The population size is constant, in the … Continue reading

Posted in Big Government, Epidemics, Probability, Simulation | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball

As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading

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Capturing NMEA sentences over WiFi using Python

In order to figure out how the NMEA-WiFi Gateway deals with clients, e.g. if it expects any “handshake” or any other communication setup protocol, I decided to write a simulator mimicing the gateway, and then using iRegatta 2 from Zifago … Continue reading

Posted in Data Analytics, Maritime Technology, Nautical Information Systems, NMEA, Numpy, performance, Python, Simulation, TCPIP | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?

As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships.  By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Finance, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Scientific Gambling – how do betting shops make money….?

Betting shops are commercial businesses, that is, they want to and must make money in order to survive. Like any other business. So take a casino as an example: they make money – in the long run – by having … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Pystan, Python, Simulation, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bayesian Inference 2018 Ice Hockey World Cup outcomes

I’ve tuned my Bayesian model a bit. Previously, it used the cumulative sum of historical results point spread as its data input, now it uses each individual game spread. Perhaps an example can make this clearer: Consider two teams, A … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference – what good is the Prior, anyway…?

A brief example on the effect of Bayesian priors (I’m going to use my Ice Hockey Championship Prediction hack under development for this example): Assume you would like to bet on the outcome of some particular game, for instance, Sweden … Continue reading

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Ice Hockey World Championships 2018 – Baysian inference for predicting results, part II

Just a brief update on my Bayesian model for predicting the upcoming hockey championships. [For info on how to read the graphs below, have a look at part I]. I wrote some scripts to pull in more game results, so … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment