Category Archives: Simulation

Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball

As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading

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Capturing NMEA sentences over WiFi using Python

In order to figure out how the NMEA-WiFi Gateway deals with clients, e.g. if it expects any “handshake” or any other communication setup protocol, I decided to write a simulator mimicing the gateway, and then using iRegatta 2 from Zifago … Continue reading

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Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?

As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships.  By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading

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Scientific Gambling – how do betting shops make money….?

Betting shops are commercial businesses, that is, they want to and must make money in order to survive. Like any other business. So take a casino as an example: they make money – in the long run – by having … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference 2018 Ice Hockey World Cup outcomes

I’ve tuned my Bayesian model a bit. Previously, it used the cumulative sum of historical results point spread as its data input, now it uses each individual game spread. Perhaps an example can make this clearer: Consider two teams, A … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference – what good is the Prior, anyway…?

A brief example on the effect of Bayesian priors (I’m going to use my Ice Hockey Championship Prediction hack under development for this example): Assume you would like to bet on the outcome of some particular game, for instance, Sweden … Continue reading

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Ice Hockey World Championships 2018 – Baysian inference for predicting results, part II

Just a brief update on my Bayesian model for predicting the upcoming hockey championships. [For info on how to read the graphs below, have a look at part I]. I wrote some scripts to pull in more game results, so … Continue reading

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Predicting the outcome of World Championships in Ice Hockey using Bayesian Inference

Just for fun, I thought I’d implement a Bayesian “statistical inference engine” for some sports tournament. For whatever reason, I came to choose ice hockey world championships, training my inference engine on data from the 2016 tournament, and testing its … Continue reading

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Bayesian Linear Regression with PYMC, part II

In the previous post we looked at a simple linear regression between (simulated) human heights and weights.  In that example, the regression was truly ‘linear’, in that the predictor variable only occured in its first power, to provide a linear regression … Continue reading

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Bayesian Linear Regression with PYMC

Is there a relationship between human height and weight…? Probably. But what does that relationship look like ? Those kinds of questions can be answered by Linear Regression. Below an example, using simulated data for weights,heights etc: import numpy as … Continue reading

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