Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
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"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Monthly Archives: May 2020
Bayes Rule for Poets and other Mathematical Virgins* :-)
[ * The title alludes to a book titled “Higher Mathematics for Poets & other Mathematical Virgins” by Tönis Tönisson, a book that for many many moons ago got me to appreciate mathematics in depth] If you are anything like … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Epidemics, Math, Probability
Tagged Bayes, Epidemics, Math, Probability
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Corona Sweden – Expected vs Actual Deaths – an anomaly
Sweden is different : not only in “strategy”, but also with respect to the pattern of weekly deaths: while all other countries that have reached the inflection point (at least of the handful I monitor closely) show – after having … Continue reading
Understanding Exponential Growth
Nobel Laureate Professor Michael Levitt explains exponential growth in context of the Corona pandemic.
From Spectator : Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid
Lockdown unnecessary…?
Corona True Mortality Rate & percentage infected
It’s been a while ago since I ran my Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation on true mortality rate, so I did so last night. This time only accounting for the data from the past 30 days, reason being a hypothesis … Continue reading
The Swedish Corona Strategy Explained
Once in a while you can find something worthwhile in social media. Just the other day, out of the blue, came a post on Facebook flying by, a post that in a few paragraphs managed to explain, in a very … Continue reading
Posted in Epidemics
Tagged Epidemics, KnownKnowns-KnownUnknowns-UnknownUnknowns, Risk, Uncertainty
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Corona Sweden : Excess Deaths (all causes) Year-to-Date going down
SCB.se has just published an update on this year’s Excess Deaths (compared to a baseline of 2015-2019) up until May-22. SCB is the government bureau of statistics, and these numbers represent *all* deaths, not just those accounted to Corona. Thus, … Continue reading
‘Nothing can justify this destruction of people’s lives’
From Spiked: ‘Nothing can justify this destruction of people’s lives’
Corona Weekly Trends US & Sweden : Actual vs Expected deaths – now 4th consecutive week of decline in deaths
US: SWEDEN:
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Epidemics, MCMC, PYMC
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Gender Bias – but not the way you’d think : Simpson’s Paradox strikes again!
I’ve previously touched upon Simpson’s Paradox and the (for statisticians!) famous example fromUniversity of California Berkeley, where it indeed looked like that the admission board favored men over women: while 44% of male applicants got admitted, only 35% of the … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Probability, PYMC, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, MCMC, Probability, PYMC, SImpson's Paradox, Statistics, UCB
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 