Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
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"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
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"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Category Archives: Research
Lies, Damn Lies & “Scientific” Corona Models
For 15 years ago, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis published a paper “Why Most Published Research Findings are False”. Well, things seem not to have improved during those 15 years, at least not when it comes to models predicting the evolution … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Epidemics, Research
Tagged Data Analysis, Epidemics, Research
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My Corona prediction – retrospective : “Prediction is (not ?) difficult, particularily (not ?) about the future…
Predictions are easy in the sense that anyone can predict anything, if you never bother to check the outcome of your predictions. So let’s do so here, check how my prediction from about a month back on the number of … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Probability, PYMC, Research, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC, Research, Statistics
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Corona Sweden & some selected countries – trends
[All data obtained from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Data up including yesterday (GMT): Summary: It still looks like the current strategy is working, and the jump in number of deceased over the past few days lead to the limit on people … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Epidemics, Research, Statistics
Tagged Data Analysis, Epidemics, Research, Statistics
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Corona Sweden – day of reckoning coming up!
A couple of days ago I pointed out that thus far, Sweden was an anomaly in the Corona dataset: – despite almost no restrictions on daily life – the restaurants and shops are still open, public transportation operates as normally … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Organization, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Research, Statistics, Sweden
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Corona – Sweden Anomaly or not…? It’s all about the slopes…!
[UPDATE 2020-03-25 : A couple of interesting pieces, {article article2} about “The Swedish Way to deal with Corona”, where among others German scientists state that the swedish way is an optimal model for how to deal with Corona in order … Continue reading
Posted in Culture, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Organization, Probability, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Data Analysis, Epidemics, organization, Politics, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige
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Corona – Sweden, The Anomaly: pure luck or are we doing something right…?
[UPDATE 2020-03-25: for numbers relative to population sizes, see here. And here is a great illustration of what I believe is the Swedish strategy for dealing with Corona] Sweden is, at least for time being, an anomaly in the Corona … Continue reading
Posted in Culture, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Organization, Politik, Research, Society, Statistics
Tagged Data Analysis, Epidemics, organization, Politics, Society, Statistics
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Corona – What’s the true Mortality Rate, and how many infected are there, anyways…? [in all likelihood, some good news!]
[Note: this is a somewhat technical / mathematical article, so those of you who only want the daily Corona updates, “the current numbers”, might want to skip this one] As we all probably know by now, the official numbers on … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Finance, Pandas, Probability, Pystan, Python, Research, Simulation, Society, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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Corona – ratio of daily deaths caused by Corona, by country
Noticed something interesting (and possibly frightening) when I browsed the COVID1-19 death statistics, published by Johns Hopkins University: What I looked at this time (as illustrated in the graph below) is the ratio of deaths per day, presumably caused by … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Epidemics, Leadership, Organization, Politik, Research, Society, Statistics
Tagged Data Analysis, Epidemics, leadership, organization, Politics, Society, Statistics
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Corona – some patterns & some hope from the experiences from China
Since China now has declared that they have beaten Corona, i.e. the virus no longer grows, let’s have a look at what the rise and eventual fall of the virus in China looked like (all graphs on standardized scales): First, … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Probability, PYMC, Research, Society, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Epidemics, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Research, Society, Statistics
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Corona – Sweden: at least 10.000 infected as of today, 2020-03-20
For exactly a week ago, when the Swedish number of infected was 814, I predicted (more correctly: my Bayesian Model did) that today, March 20, Sweden would have 10.000 infected. Looking at today’s official numbers, it seems that I was … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Culture, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Functional Stupidity, Organization, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, business, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Functional Stupidity, Life, organization, Politics, PYMC, Research, Science, Society, Statistics
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 