Category Archives: Research

Lies, Damn Lies & “Scientific” Corona Models

For 15 years ago, Stanford Professor John Ioannidis published a paper “Why Most Published Research Findings are False”. Well, things seem not to have improved during those 15 years, at least not when it comes to models predicting the evolution … Continue reading

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My Corona prediction – retrospective : “Prediction is (not ?) difficult, particularily (not ?) about the future…

Predictions are easy in the sense that anyone can predict anything, if you never bother to check the outcome of your predictions.  So let’s do so here, check how my prediction from about a month back on the number of … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden & some selected countries – trends

[All data  obtained from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Data up including yesterday (GMT): Summary: It still looks like the current strategy is working, and the jump in number of deceased over the past few days lead to the limit on people … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – day of reckoning coming up!

A couple of days ago I pointed out that thus far, Sweden was an anomaly in the Corona dataset: – despite almost no restrictions on daily life – the restaurants and shops are still open, public transportation operates as normally … Continue reading

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Corona – Sweden Anomaly or not…? It’s all about the slopes…!

[UPDATE 2020-03-25 : A couple of  interesting pieces, {article article2} about “The Swedish Way to deal with Corona”, where among others German scientists state that the swedish way is an optimal model for how to deal with Corona in order … Continue reading

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Corona – Sweden, The Anomaly: pure luck or are we doing something right…?

[UPDATE 2020-03-25: for numbers relative to population sizes, see here. And here is a great illustration of what I believe is the Swedish strategy for dealing with Corona] Sweden is, at least for time being, an anomaly in the Corona … Continue reading

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Corona – What’s the true Mortality Rate, and how many infected are there, anyways…? [in all likelihood, some good news!]

[Note: this is a somewhat technical / mathematical article, so those of you who only want the daily Corona updates, “the current numbers”, might want to skip this one] As we all probably know by now, the official numbers on … Continue reading

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Corona – ratio of daily deaths caused by Corona, by country

Noticed something interesting (and possibly frightening) when I browsed the COVID1-19 death statistics, published by Johns Hopkins University: What I looked at this time (as illustrated in the graph below) is the ratio of deaths per day, presumably caused by … Continue reading

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Corona – some patterns & some hope from the experiences from China

Since China now has declared that they have beaten Corona, i.e. the virus no longer grows, let’s have a look at what the rise and eventual fall of the virus in China looked like (all graphs on standardized scales): First, … Continue reading

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Corona – Sweden: at least 10.000 infected as of today, 2020-03-20

For exactly a week ago, when the Swedish number of infected was 814, I predicted (more correctly: my Bayesian Model did) that today, March 20, Sweden would have 10.000 infected. Looking at today’s official numbers, it seems that I was … Continue reading

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