Category Archives: Math

Distribution of distributions in 3D

Just a quick add-on to my previous post on yet another way to present multidimensional data: To recap, we have a “distribution of distributions”, where each distribution has two dimensions, mu and sigma. In the previous post, I chose to present … Continue reading

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Bayesian A/B-testing, part III

This final part on Bayesian A/B-testing will continue looking at the various assumptions, implicit or explicit, that always are in play when building statistical models.  In part II, we looked at what impact larger data sets have on our inferences, … Continue reading

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Bayesian A/B-testing, part II

Continuing my example by examining how the different assumptions – yes, in any model there are always assumptions, explicit or implicit – of the model impact the end result, that is, the prediction of the sought after signup-rate, a.k.a our posterior … Continue reading

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A/B-testing with Bayesian Inference

The example Inspired by Rasmus Bååth’s lectures on Bayesian Inference, I’ve implemented a simple Python example demostrating how Bayesian Inference can be used for A/B-testing, that is, evidence based testing. This methodology, i.e. A/B-testing, is useful in most domains, e.g. … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference for upcoming elections

In a couple of previous posts, I’ve tried to wear out my swedish speaking audience with predictions regarding the upcoming national elections, using Bayesian Inference. This post will be a bit more technical, perhaps of interest for a larger audience … Continue reading

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Val2018 – Prognosuppdatering

Fortfarande samma data, dvs Sentios opinionsundersökningar, men dels lite tweakning av den Bayesianska inferensmodellen, och dessutom förstorad skala på grafiken. Som synes av graferna, så ger ett 95% konfidensintervall ett brett resultat, för brett för att vara till verklig nytta. … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos mha Bayesian Inference för samtliga riksdagspartier

Så, nu har mitt program tuggat sig igenom datat för samtliga 8 riksdagspartier, och för varje parti tagit fram en prognos över partiets röstandel i det kommande valet i september. Prognoserna är gjorda med “Bayesian Inference”, dvs en statistisk metod … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos Kristdemokraterna & Liberalerna

Min “Bayesian Inference Engine” 0.8 rapporterar för Kristdemokraterna och Liberalerna följande: KD ser enligt modellen ut att få mellan 2.0 – 4.0% Sannolikheten att KD ramlar ur riksdagen är enligt modellen 76%. (Dock skall man alltid komma ihåg Kamrat 4%-effekten, … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos mha Bayesian Inference

(For my non-swedish readers – sorry, but this article is in swedish, and probably not much of interest to you anyway, being about the upcoming swedish elections. In case you are looking for general info on Bayesian inference, there are … Continue reading

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Bayesian inference – ratio land/water for earth

In a series of videos, Richard McElreath gives a tutorial on Bayesian statistics. Above video chapter presents the problem of determining the ratio of land/water for earth, by tossing an inflatable globe multiple times, and recording each landing, land or … Continue reading

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