Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
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"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Category Archives: STAN
Prognos Val2018 – Bayesian Inference
Uppdaterat prognosen för Riksdagsvalet 2018 med februari-datat från samtliga opinionsinstitut. Mest noterbart är att KD med 75% sannolikhet ramlar ur Riksdagen. Övriga partier befinner sig utanför riskzonen att ramla ur.
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Numpy, Politik, Probability, Pystan, Python, STAN, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Matplotlib, Numpy, Politik, Pystan, Python, STAN, Statistics, Val2018
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Val 2018 – KD ramlar ur Riksdagen
Har nu uppdaterat både datat och min Bayesian Inferencemodell, datat genom att lägga till siffrorna från samtliga övriga opinionsinstitut, och modellen körs numera i Stan, ett domänspecifikt språk för statistiska analyser. Efter en körning av samtliga publicerade opinionsundersökningar sedan valet … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Numpy, Politik, Probability, Pystan, Python, Society, STAN, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Politik, Probability, Pystan, Python, STAN, Statistics, Val2018
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Bayesian A/B-testing, part III
This final part on Bayesian A/B-testing will continue looking at the various assumptions, implicit or explicit, that always are in play when building statistical models. In part II, we looked at what impact larger data sets have on our inferences, … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, performance, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
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Bayesian A/B-testing, part II
Continuing my example by examining how the different assumptions – yes, in any model there are always assumptions, explicit or implicit – of the model impact the end result, that is, the prediction of the sought after signup-rate, a.k.a our posterior … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Behavioral Economics, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Math, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, Python, Simulation, Statistics
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A/B-testing with Bayesian Inference
The example Inspired by Rasmus Bååth’s lectures on Bayesian Inference, I’ve implemented a simple Python example demostrating how Bayesian Inference can be used for A/B-testing, that is, evidence based testing. This methodology, i.e. A/B-testing, is useful in most domains, e.g. … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Behavioral Economics, Big Data, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, performance, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analysis, Numpy, Pandas, performance, Pystan, Python, Scipy, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
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Bayesian Inference for upcoming elections
In a couple of previous posts, I’ve tried to wear out my swedish speaking audience with predictions regarding the upcoming national elections, using Bayesian Inference. This post will be a bit more technical, perhaps of interest for a larger audience … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Big Data, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, performance, Politik, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, Society, STAN, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Politics, Probability, Pystan, Python, STAN, Statistics, Sverige, Val2018
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 