Category Archives: Statistics

Corona Sweden – time to batten down the hatches…?

[Instructions on how to read the graph here] Second day in row now when the Expected Number of daily deaths for Sweden is way above where it should be, given how the growth process has evolved thus far.  That is, … Continue reading

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Corona – Expected Daily Deaths

Below Expected Daily Deaths distributions for: [‘India’,’Italy’,’Spain’,’Sweden’,’US’, ‘Korea, South’,’Netherlands’,’Canada’,’Germany’,’New York’] Info on how to read the plots can be found here.

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Corona US states – gdp influence on spread

Looks like GDP has an inpact on both number of confirmed and number of dead. Perhaps a spurious correlation, or then again, perhaps not… Below graphs show regression for confirmed_per_million and deaths_per_million, over gdp, for US states [I’ve removed District … Continue reading

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Corona New York – it’s *really* extreme..!

New York is hit very hard by Corona, we know that. But exactly how hard…? Turns out it’s extremely hard: the number of confirmed corona cases per million habitants in New York is 6 (!) standard deviations over US mean…! … Continue reading

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Corona – New York compared to 10 Countries

New York has been hit hard by Corona. However, it seems that the growth rate  as well as the death rate are now quickly slowing down.

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Bayesian Inference – Corona (Technical)

[This is a technical post. Those of you mainly interested in the daily Corona numbers may want to skip this] Now, after about a month of basically full time Data Analysis of the Corona statistics, perhaps it’s a good point … Continue reading

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Corona – Sweden and Netherlands – the Anomalies

[UPDATE: Added Germany + Canada] [All data from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Noticed a couple of interesting patterns when I put the growth rates for Confirmed and Deceased on the same chart, for a set of countries: Let’s start by looking … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden & some selected countries – trends

[All data  obtained from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Data up including yesterday (GMT): Summary: It still looks like the current strategy is working, and the jump in number of deceased over the past few days lead to the limit on people … Continue reading

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Corona – estimated true mortality rate presented using a Nomogram

My old friend, mentor and former manager Joe Marasco has devised a very cool way to present information on the estimated true mortality rate, using a technique I’d expect very few people under 60 years of age will ever have … Continue reading

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Corona – the “true” mortality rate…?

A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo run on current data, to figure out the likely mortality rate, and the factor of under-estimation of the number of infected. For more info on what this is all about, see my earlier post. … Continue reading

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