Category Archives: Statistics

Covid-19 Sweden: A summary

Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus.  People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate

It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Gender Bias – but not the way you’d think : Simpson’s Paradox strikes again!

I’ve previously touched upon Simpson’s Paradox and the (for statisticians!) famous example fromUniversity of California Berkeley, where it indeed looked like that the admission board favored men over women: while 44% of male applicants got admitted, only 35% of the … Continue reading

Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Probability, PYMC, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Fooled by Averages and Ignorant of Uncertainty – Bayesian Inference to assistance

As a follow up to my previous posts [1,2,3] on the danger’s of relying upon averages, and Simpson’s paradox, which is a consequence of misused averaging, here’s yet another angle on the same topic. Let’s first resume with the baseball … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics | Tagged , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Corona Sweden – Excess Deaths jan 1st – May 15th

Fresh numbers from the government statistics bureau SCB, on excess deaths year-to-date reveal that April 2020 was the deadliest month in 20 years. However, relative to population, more people died in January 2000 compared to April 2020. Total number of … Continue reading

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Deeper look into Simpson’s Paradox – be very careful with averages!

A while ago, I did a quick post on Simpson’s Paradox, in context of Corona and R0-values. Here we are going to look a bit deeper into the paradox. Why ? Because it has some very important implications in any … Continue reading

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Corona Weekly Trends US & Sweden : Actual vs Expected deaths – Sweden now third consecutive week of decline in deaths

Both US and Sweden continue demonstrating consistent decrease of weekly number of deaths. However, for Sweden, the weekly number of confirmed increased slightly, from 3745 to 3942 during the past 7-day period, which comparing to other countries with an overall … Continue reading

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Simpson’s Paradox

As noted previously, e.g. in this post, care must be taken with statistics… From Unherd.com: Simpsons Paradox & R0 Thanks to Richard McElreath’s Baysian Inference class, I happened to have the data from the example on Simpson’s Paradox in the … Continue reading

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How to mislead with statistics : Fooled by Randomness

Since many people are now, due to the Corona pandemic, exposed to, and interested in statistics for the first time, I’d thought I’d show how easy it is to both mislead, as well as misunderstand, statistics. I’ve borrowed part of … Continue reading

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Corona weekly trends US & Sweden – Expected vs Actual Deaths

[UPDATE: nice to see that the official experts seem to agree… 🙂  ] US now looks like being on a stable track of decline, it’s the second consecutive week now with the Actual weekly deaths being significantly lower than Expectation, … Continue reading

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