Category Archives: Probability

Corona Sweden – time to batten down the hatches…?

[Instructions on how to read the graph here] Second day in row now when the Expected Number of daily deaths for Sweden is way above where it should be, given how the growth process has evolved thus far.  That is, … Continue reading

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Corona – Expected Daily Deaths

Below Expected Daily Deaths distributions for: [‘India’,’Italy’,’Spain’,’Sweden’,’US’, ‘Korea, South’,’Netherlands’,’Canada’,’Germany’,’New York’] Info on how to read the plots can be found here.

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Corona US states – gdp influence on spread

Looks like GDP has an inpact on both number of confirmed and number of dead. Perhaps a spurious correlation, or then again, perhaps not… Below graphs show regression for confirmed_per_million and deaths_per_million, over gdp, for US states [I’ve removed District … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference – Corona (Technical)

[This is a technical post. Those of you mainly interested in the daily Corona numbers may want to skip this] Now, after about a month of basically full time Data Analysis of the Corona statistics, perhaps it’s a good point … Continue reading

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Corona – Sweden and Netherlands – the Anomalies

[UPDATE: Added Germany + Canada] [All data from Johns Hopkins CSSE] Noticed a couple of interesting patterns when I put the growth rates for Confirmed and Deceased on the same chart, for a set of countries: Let’s start by looking … Continue reading

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Corona – the “true” mortality rate…?

A new Markov Chain Monte Carlo run on current data, to figure out the likely mortality rate, and the factor of under-estimation of the number of infected. For more info on what this is all about, see my earlier post. … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – day of reckoning coming up!

A couple of days ago I pointed out that thus far, Sweden was an anomaly in the Corona dataset: – despite almost no restrictions on daily life – the restaurants and shops are still open, public transportation operates as normally … Continue reading

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Corona – Sweden Anomaly or not…? It’s all about the slopes…!

[UPDATE 2020-03-25 : A couple of  interesting pieces, {article article2} about “The Swedish Way to deal with Corona”, where among others German scientists state that the swedish way is an optimal model for how to deal with Corona in order … Continue reading

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Corona – What’s the true Mortality Rate, and how many infected are there, anyways…? [in all likelihood, some good news!]

[Note: this is a somewhat technical / mathematical article, so those of you who only want the daily Corona updates, “the current numbers”, might want to skip this one] As we all probably know by now, the official numbers on … Continue reading

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Corona – some patterns & some hope from the experiences from China

Since China now has declared that they have beaten Corona, i.e. the virus no longer grows, let’s have a look at what the rise and eventual fall of the virus in China looked like (all graphs on standardized scales): First, … Continue reading

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