Category Archives: Probability

Corona – Latitude matters (!)

I was pointed towards looking into the possible impact of Latitude – yes, that’s right! – on Corona related deaths by Ivor Cummins, twitter handle @FatEmperor, who is very much involved in clearing up the pseudo-scientific mess the world has … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate

It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – Herd Immunity matters

Sweden, and particularily the Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, as well as his predecessor/mentor Johan Giesecke, have received huge amounts of critizism for the “Swedish Strategy” fighting Corona. A key component of Tegnell’s & Giesecke’s rationale for not recommending Lockdown … Continue reading

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Bayes rule illustrated by a table

I just found this excellent illustration of Bayes Rule, in a book “Bayes’ Rule with Python, by James V. Stone, and thought I’d share it here, as a follow-up to earlier posts on Bayes rule, e.g. this one. Assume we … Continue reading

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MCMC “Internals” – fitting the data

Lately, I’ve been puzzling over how exactly MCMC fits the data of the likelihood, that is, how exactly is that fitting done by the various tools implementing MCMC. So, this post is maily about MCMC Internals, not about how to … Continue reading

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Bayes Rule for Poets and other Mathematical Virgins* :-)

[ * The title alludes to a book titled “Higher Mathematics for Poets & other Mathematical Virgins” by Tönis Tönisson, a book that for many many moons ago got me to appreciate mathematics in depth] If you are anything like … Continue reading

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Gender Bias – but not the way you’d think : Simpson’s Paradox strikes again!

I’ve previously touched upon Simpson’s Paradox and the (for statisticians!) famous example fromUniversity of California Berkeley, where it indeed looked like that the admission board favored men over women: while 44% of male applicants got admitted, only 35% of the … Continue reading

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Fooled by Averages and Ignorant of Uncertainty – Bayesian Inference to assistance

As a follow up to my previous posts [1,2,3] on the danger’s of relying upon averages, and Simpson’s paradox, which is a consequence of misused averaging, here’s yet another angle on the same topic. Let’s first resume with the baseball … Continue reading

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Corona Weekly Trends US & Sweden : Actual vs Expected deaths – Sweden now third consecutive week of decline in deaths

Both US and Sweden continue demonstrating consistent decrease of weekly number of deaths. However, for Sweden, the weekly number of confirmed increased slightly, from 3745 to 3942 during the past 7-day period, which comparing to other countries with an overall … Continue reading

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Corona US & Sweden – How many infected are there, and what’s the true mortality rate, really…?

Short answer : nobody knows for sure. But we can actually do quite a bit better than that: for instance, there have been random testing done in several countries, all showing that there are vastly more people carrying the infection … Continue reading

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