Tag Archives: Gambling

Fooled by Averages and Ignorant of Uncertainty – Bayesian Inference to assistance

As a follow up to my previous posts [1,2,3] on the danger’s of relying upon averages, and Simpson’s paradox, which is a consequence of misused averaging, here’s yet another angle on the same topic. Let’s first resume with the baseball … Continue reading

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Corona gambling – using techniques from the gambling industry for prediction of epidemics

One thing that surprises me is that so far, to my knowledge, none of the established bookmakers such as Unibet, have offered people to bet on various Corona-related outcomes, e.g. the number of daily cases of confirmed, or even the … Continue reading

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Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball

As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading

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Gambling – moving odds simulation

Ever thought about how bookies set the odds for events…?  The problem at hand for a bookie is to set the odds in such a way that he makes a profit, regardless of what outcome the event has. The way … Continue reading

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Scientific Gambling – Bayesian prediction & betting results from FIFA World Cup 2018

32 teams, 64 games.  3 different ranking models tested, FIFA’s official, a “wisdom-of-crowds” (static), and a dynamic version of the wisdom-of-crowds model. Prediction results: 67% of game outcomes correctly predicted. Betting results best strategy (max probability), with uniform betting on … Continue reading

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Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?

As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships.  By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading

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Scientific Gambling – Ice Hockey World Championships starting tomorrow

The tournament is starting tomorrow with four games. From now on, future posts on this topic on the public Facebook group Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey World Championships 2018 only. So, I you want to continue following how my Bayesian Inference engine … Continue reading

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Scientific Gambling – “House Advantage”

In previous post we looked at how Betting Shops, Casinos etc make money, fundamentally by ‘salting’ the odds just a tiny bit in their favor. Let’s use two very simple games to illustrate how this works, tossing coins and throwing dice. … Continue reading

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Scientific Gambling – how do betting shops make money….?

Betting shops are commercial businesses, that is, they want to and must make money in order to survive. Like any other business. So take a casino as an example: they make money – in the long run – by having … Continue reading

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Scientific gambling – How to identify potentially profitable odds/plays ?

In all sports gambling, success or failure is determined by a number of factors, luck not being the least of them, since in any sport there are loads of “Unknown Unknowns“, which we could also call “Uncertainty”. And then there … Continue reading

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