Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
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"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
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When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
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"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
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"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Tag Archives: Probability
SWEDEN : Odds of dying before vs during Pandemic (WARNING : this is a really morbid post, sensitive souls should not proceed…!)
Below stats on the odds of dying per age group, before Corona, vs during Corona. The numbers in the graph are read as “one death per n persons”, where n is the number found in the table. The table has … Continue reading
More Mindbending Probability
In a previous post, I discussed the seemingly unintuitive logic of the famous Monty Hall Problem. However, with some careful thinking, even without resorting to Monte Carlo Simulation, I’m able to make sense of that apparent paradox. However, the paradox … Continue reading
Fooled by probability – Monty Hall Problem
“You made a mistake, but look at the positive side. If all those Ph.D.’s were wrong, the country would be in some very serious trouble.” Everett Harman, Ph.D. U.S. Army Research Institute Probability is a terrible branch of science, I … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics
Tagged Monty Hall, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, Python, Statistics
3 Comments
As predictable as sunrise
I’m been waiting for headlines like this to appear for a while now… with today’s media that never cares about truth nor reality, but only about click baiting, it was inevitable to arrive… Damn I didn’t bet on it… could … Continue reading
Covid Sweden – status 2020-08-03
SCB.se just released their weekly preliminary stat’s on deaths all causes. However, before looking at that data, let’s take a look at how Covid has evolved in Sweden, based on the numbers from Johns Hopkins University: Something remarkable seems to … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
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Covid-19 Sweden: A summary
Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus. People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Economy, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics
4 Comments
Corona – Latitude matters (!)
I was pointed towards looking into the possible impact of Latitude – yes, that’s right! – on Corona related deaths by Ivor Cummins, twitter handle @FatEmperor, who is very much involved in clearing up the pseudo-scientific mess the world has … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
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Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate
It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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Corona Sweden – Herd Immunity matters
Sweden, and particularily the Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, as well as his predecessor/mentor Johan Giesecke, have received huge amounts of critizism for the “Swedish Strategy” fighting Corona. A key component of Tegnell’s & Giesecke’s rationale for not recommending Lockdown … Continue reading
Posted in Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
Tagged Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
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Bayes rule illustrated by a table
I just found this excellent illustration of Bayes Rule, in a book “Bayes’ Rule with Python, by James V. Stone, and thought I’d share it here, as a follow-up to earlier posts on Bayes rule, e.g. this one. Assume we … Continue reading
systems perestroika - éminence grise 