Tag Archives: Probability

SWEDEN : Odds of dying before vs during Pandemic (WARNING : this is a really morbid post, sensitive souls should not proceed…!)

Below stats on the odds of dying per age group, before Corona, vs during Corona. The numbers in the graph are read as “one death per n persons”, where n is the number found in the table. The table has … Continue reading

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More Mindbending Probability

In a previous post, I discussed the seemingly unintuitive logic of the famous Monty Hall Problem. However, with some careful thinking, even without resorting to Monte Carlo Simulation, I’m able to make sense of that apparent paradox. However, the paradox … Continue reading

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Fooled by probability – Monty Hall Problem

“You made a mistake, but look at the positive side. If all those Ph.D.’s were wrong, the country would be in some very serious trouble.” Everett Harman, Ph.D. U.S. Army Research Institute Probability is a terrible branch of science, I … Continue reading

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As predictable as sunrise

I’m been waiting for headlines like this to appear for a while now… with today’s media that never cares about truth nor reality, but only about click baiting, it was inevitable to arrive… Damn I didn’t bet on it… could … Continue reading

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Covid Sweden – status 2020-08-03

SCB.se just released their weekly preliminary stat’s on deaths all causes. However, before looking at that data, let’s take a look at how Covid has evolved in Sweden, based on the numbers from Johns Hopkins University: Something remarkable seems to … Continue reading

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Covid-19 Sweden: A summary

Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus.  People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Corona – Latitude matters (!)

I was pointed towards looking into the possible impact of Latitude – yes, that’s right! – on Corona related deaths by Ivor Cummins, twitter handle @FatEmperor, who is very much involved in clearing up the pseudo-scientific mess the world has … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate

It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – Herd Immunity matters

Sweden, and particularily the Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, as well as his predecessor/mentor Johan Giesecke, have received huge amounts of critizism for the “Swedish Strategy” fighting Corona. A key component of Tegnell’s & Giesecke’s rationale for not recommending Lockdown … Continue reading

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Bayes rule illustrated by a table

I just found this excellent illustration of Bayes Rule, in a book “Bayes’ Rule with Python, by James V. Stone, and thought I’d share it here, as a follow-up to earlier posts on Bayes rule, e.g. this one. Assume we … Continue reading

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