Tag Archives: Probability

MH370 and Bayesian reasoning: example of SAR optimization

In two previous posts, [1,2] I’ve covered the fundamentals of Bayesian probability theory.  The second post looked into how the air distaster investigation team might have proceeded, once they received Inmarsat’s satellite data, to assess the likelihood of the flight path … Continue reading

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Bayesian reasoning and SAR for flight MH370

I covered the basics of Bayesian reasoning in a previous post. So, let’s apply Bayesian reasoning to the search & rescue operation of flight MH370. As we now know, Inmarsat’s identification of the most likely path taken by MH370, by … Continue reading

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Bayesian reasoning made simple by Golden Retrievers and other canines

    Just finished reading Brian Clegg’s excellent ‘Dice World – science and life in a random universe‘. Highly recommended to anyone who’s interested in the inherent unpredictability of our world, and even more highly recommended to all those empty … Continue reading

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Are you smarter than 80% of professional gynecologists…?

Several studies, e.g this one, show that most people, including professionals in domains where knowledge of chance and odds matter, have difficulties understanding probabilities. Take the following example (from the linked study above): – it is known that in a … Continue reading

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