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Educate-Inspire-Change
Empty Suit
Definition: An amateur who's been given the power to set the goals & objectives for professionals to follow, and thinks of himself as a strong leader.Ethics
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When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
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"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
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Tag Archives: Probability
MH370 and Bayesian reasoning: example of SAR optimization
In two previous posts, [1,2] I’ve covered the fundamentals of Bayesian probability theory. The second post looked into how the air distaster investigation team might have proceeded, once they received Inmarsat’s satellite data, to assess the likelihood of the flight path … Continue reading
Bayesian reasoning and SAR for flight MH370
I covered the basics of Bayesian reasoning in a previous post. So, let’s apply Bayesian reasoning to the search & rescue operation of flight MH370. As we now know, Inmarsat’s identification of the most likely path taken by MH370, by … Continue reading
Bayesian reasoning made simple by Golden Retrievers and other canines
Just finished reading Brian Clegg’s excellent ‘Dice World – science and life in a random universe‘. Highly recommended to anyone who’s interested in the inherent unpredictability of our world, and even more highly recommended to all those empty … Continue reading
Are you smarter than 80% of professional gynecologists…?
Several studies, e.g this one, show that most people, including professionals in domains where knowledge of chance and odds matter, have difficulties understanding probabilities. Take the following example (from the linked study above): – it is known that in a … Continue reading
