Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
Ethics
"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
- agile
- AI
- algorithm
- Artificial Intelligence
- Bayes
- Big Data
- Big Government
- Black Swan
- Brottsstatistik
- business
- complex systems
- covid
- Culture
- Data Analysis
- development
- Dynamic Non-linear systems
- Empty Suit
- environment
- Epidemics
- Eurostat
- Feature Centric Development
- FFT
- Functional Stupidity
- Gambling
- Gephi
- global finance
- GPS
- Grandiosity
- HOCKEY-2018
- image processing
- innovation
- leadership
- LinearRegression
- Machine Learning
- management
- Math
- Matplotlib
- MCMC
- Monte Carlo
- Navigation
- Neural networks
- Numpy
- organization
- Pandas
- Politics
- Politik
- Power
- Probability
- programming
- Psychology
- PYMC
- Pystan
- Python
- Radical management
- Research
- Samhälle
- Science
- Scipy
- SelfOptimizingAgile
- Simulation
- SNA
- Society
- software
- sports
- STAN
- Statistics
- Steve Denning
- Surveillance
- Sverige
- systems
- Taleb
- Technology
- The Great Reset
- Val2018
Follow me on Twitter
My Tweets-
Recent Posts
Top Posts & Pages past few days
- Perspective on the “Swedish Covid Disaster”, part VIII
- Final Report on Swedish Mortality 2020, Anno Covidius
- SWEDEN : The Pandemic is over, but when did it actually disappear...?
- Python Pandas - descriptive stats from a frequency table
- Rockefeller Foundation Scenario Lock Step
- More fun with Python: Navigational tricks - AIS NMEA encoding/decoding
- Information till dig som ska vaccineras mot Covid 19 - Lars Bern och Peter Abelin i Swebbtv Vetenskap 35. - Swebbtv
- The role of Energy in human evolution
- Perspective on the “Swedish Covid Disaster”, part VIII
- Personality Type of readers of this blog
Archives
- May 2022
- April 2022
- March 2022
- February 2022
- January 2022
- December 2021
- November 2021
- October 2021
- September 2021
- August 2021
- July 2021
- June 2021
- May 2021
- April 2021
- March 2021
- February 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- November 2020
- October 2020
- September 2020
- August 2020
- July 2020
- June 2020
- May 2020
- April 2020
- March 2020
- February 2020
- May 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- October 2018
- September 2018
- August 2018
- July 2018
- June 2018
- May 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- September 2017
- August 2017
- October 2014
- September 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
Blogroll
Top Clicks
Categories
- A/B Testing
- Agile
- AI
- anti-science
- API
- Bayes
- Behavioral Economics
- Big Business
- Big Data
- Big Government
- Boating
- Business
- Climate
- Complex Systems
- Computer Science
- Corpotocracy
- Culture
- Data Analytics
- Data Driven Management
- Defense
- development
- Economy
- Energy
- Epidemics
- FIFA
- Finance
- Functional Stupidity
- Future
- Gambling
- Global Catastrophic Risk
- Grandiosity
- HOCKEY-2018
- Innovation
- IoT
- Journalism
- Kanban
- KERAS
- Leadership
- Lean
- Machine Learning
- Management
- Maritime Technology
- Math
- MCMC
- Money
- Nautical Information Systems
- Neural networks
- NMEA
- Non Linear Dynamic Systems
- Numpy
- Organization
- Pandas
- performance
- Physics
- Politik
- Probability
- Psychology
- PYMC
- Pystan
- Python
- Research
- Science
- SelfOptimizingAgile
- Simulation
- SNA
- Social Credit System
- Society
- software
- sports
- STAN
- Statistics
- Surveillance
- Sverige
- Systems
- TCPIP
- Technology
- Telecom
- The Great Reset
- Uncategorized
- Web
Meta
Tag Archives: Probability
SWEDEN : Odds of dying before vs during Pandemic (WARNING : this is a really morbid post, sensitive souls should not proceed…!)
Below stats on the odds of dying per age group, before Corona, vs during Corona. The numbers in the graph are read as “one death per n persons”, where n is the number found in the table. The table has … Continue reading
More Mindbending Probability
In a previous post, I discussed the seemingly unintuitive logic of the famous Monty Hall Problem. However, with some careful thinking, even without resorting to Monte Carlo Simulation, I’m able to make sense of that apparent paradox. However, the paradox … Continue reading
Fooled by probability – Monty Hall Problem
“You made a mistake, but look at the positive side. If all those Ph.D.’s were wrong, the country would be in some very serious trouble.” Everett Harman, Ph.D. U.S. Army Research Institute Probability is a terrible branch of science, I … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics
Tagged Monty Hall, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, Python, Statistics
3 Comments
As predictable as sunrise
I’m been waiting for headlines like this to appear for a while now… with today’s media that never cares about truth nor reality, but only about click baiting, it was inevitable to arrive… Damn I didn’t bet on it… could … Continue reading
Covid Sweden – status 2020-08-03
SCB.se just released their weekly preliminary stat’s on deaths all causes. However, before looking at that data, let’s take a look at how Covid has evolved in Sweden, based on the numbers from Johns Hopkins University: Something remarkable seems to … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
Leave a comment
Covid-19 Sweden: A summary
Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus. People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Economy, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics
4 Comments
Corona – Latitude matters (!)
I was pointed towards looking into the possible impact of Latitude – yes, that’s right! – on Corona related deaths by Ivor Cummins, twitter handle @FatEmperor, who is very much involved in clearing up the pseudo-scientific mess the world has … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
Leave a comment
Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate
It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Leave a comment
Corona Sweden – Herd Immunity matters
Sweden, and particularily the Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, as well as his predecessor/mentor Johan Giesecke, have received huge amounts of critizism for the “Swedish Strategy” fighting Corona. A key component of Tegnell’s & Giesecke’s rationale for not recommending Lockdown … Continue reading
Posted in Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
Tagged Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
Leave a comment
Bayes rule illustrated by a table
I just found this excellent illustration of Bayes Rule, in a book “Bayes’ Rule with Python, by James V. Stone, and thought I’d share it here, as a follow-up to earlier posts on Bayes rule, e.g. this one. Assume we … Continue reading
systems perestroika - éminence grise 