Tag Archives: Probability

Tour de Ski Final climb – does age matter for performance ?

In an earlier post, I analyzed data from the Marcialonga Ski race. Marcialonga is one of the classic long distance ski races, where both elite’ as well as amateurs compete together. In fact, the vast majority of the competitors in … Continue reading

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Marcialonga Ski 2018 – some Analytics

Now, with the power grid finally – after 62 hours! – back in business, I’m able to continue my stats/analytics exploration of the past Marcialonga ski race. First, some basic stats about the race: Total number of participants: 5558, of … Continue reading

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Bayesian Linear Regression with PYMC

Python, Pandas & PYMC example on Bayesian Linear Regression, adopted from Richard McElreath’s “Statistical Rethinking” class, where he uses R as modeling language instead of PYMC. Data in a csv-file describe various attributes such as weight, height, age, gender etc … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference – the dangers of “small data” combined with a mis-informed Prior

Continuing on my previous example of trying to figure out the true proportion of blue marbles in a bag: Previously, we used a non-informative, uniform prior for our inference. This time, let’s compare that non-informed prior with an informed prior – … Continue reading

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Why (sample) size matters – Bayesian Inference

[The following example is adapted from Richard McElreath’s excellent “Statistical Rethinking”] Let’s say you have bought a bag of marbles. The marbles in the bag are either blue or white. But you don’t know the proportions, that is, the ratio … Continue reading

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Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball

As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading

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Bayesian Multi-predictor Regression – Valet2018

[Continuing my exploration of the Swedish election results, but I thought this might be of interest also for those of you not very interested in the Swedish elections, simply because the potential MatStat’s  insights – thus, the text is in … Continue reading

Posted in Bayes, Big Data, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Numpy, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Val2018 – samband mellan röstning och inkomst/utbildningsnivå

Det börjar bli många olika analyser av valresultatet på den här bloggen, så här kommer ytterligare en: En regressionsanalys över valdatat (från Valmyndigheten) och befolkningsdatat (från SCB): Bayesian Linear Regression över sambanden Röstandelar per parti vs andelen högutbildade (minst 3 … Continue reading

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PYMC – Markov Chain Monte Carlo regression – canonical example

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Val2018 – röstningsmönster i Sveriges län och Stockholms kommuner

I tidigare inlägg har jag redogjort för hur min Bayesian Inference valprediktion lyckades (riktigt bra, tack för att du frågar, bättre än många proffs-tyckare, faktiskt!) 🙂 I detta inlägg presenteras några obearbetade “rådata” kring valutgången och populationen i dels samtliga … Continue reading

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