Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball

As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success.

When the Italian premier division started for about a month ago, I wanted to see whether my prediction engine and betting strategies would also work for a series, not just for tournaments limited in time and space.

So, below some stats and prediction + betting outcome results over the first 4 rounds of the series:

First, some raw series statistics:

 

stats_by_ascending.jpg

Next, Betting Strategy success/Failure status:

betting_strategy

Finally – A Bayesian Regression plot on the predictive engine’s accuracy:

regression_dn_ranking_vs_points

For those of you who would like to learn more about this project – have a look at this Facebook Group where updates are posted after each round of games.

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, Machine Learning, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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