Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
Ethics
"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Category Archives: MCMC
A bit more serious attempt to estimate COVID Vaccine Efficacy
A few days ago, I did a quick & dirty Bayesian estimate on Covid Vaccine Efficacy, based on Israeli data, given in a Twitter post (see details on the data in the link above). As stated in the earlier post, … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, MCMC, PYMC
Tagged A/B Testing, Arviz, Bayes, PYMC
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Covid Sweden – status 2020-08-03
SCB.se just released their weekly preliminary stat’s on deaths all causes. However, before looking at that data, let’s take a look at how Covid has evolved in Sweden, based on the numbers from Johns Hopkins University: Something remarkable seems to … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
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Lockdowns – The Illusion of Controlling a Virus, part II
Just a brief addendum to part 1: Below a graph showing a Bayesian Linear Regression, using the OxCGRT index as predictor for deaths per million, for each individual country of the 14 countries I’ve been looking at lately: What’s interesting … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, PYMC
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COVID-19 – are lockdowns effective…?
Using https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/ – an index that measures the stringency of measures taken by different governments to prevent the spread of Covid-19 – as predictor for deaths per million reveals that lockdowns are pretty much useless… Below chart based on data … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC
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Covid-19 Sweden: A summary
Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus. People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Economy, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics
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Corona Sweden : Probability of dying per age group
Just for fun, hacked a simple Bayesian Model* to figure out how the probability of dying has changed for a few age groups Jan-Jun 2020, compared to the average of the same period 2015-2019. (In case anyone wonders why on … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, PYMC
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Corona US – republican vs democratic states
First, I don’t know anything about US politics, and frankly, I don’t care, but as an interesting example on data analysis, if nothing else, below is a graph showing Corona deaths_per_million, where US states are categorised into Republican vs Democratic, … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Politics
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Corona – Latitude matters (!)
I was pointed towards looking into the possible impact of Latitude – yes, that’s right! – on Corona related deaths by Ivor Cummins, twitter handle @FatEmperor, who is very much involved in clearing up the pseudo-scientific mess the world has … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC
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Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate
It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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MCMC “Internals” – fitting the data
Lately, I’ve been puzzling over how exactly MCMC fits the data of the likelihood, that is, how exactly is that fitting done by the various tools implementing MCMC. So, this post is maily about MCMC Internals, not about how to … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Math, MCMC, Probability, Simulation
Tagged Bayes, MCMC, Probability, programming, Python, software
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 