Monthly Archives: April 2020

Corona – let’s make a bet, or two..

Since I’m doing a lot of predictions, most of them based on Bayesian Inference, some of them based on intuition… Let’s put some skin-in-the-game….let’s make a few bets: Bet 1: The total number of deaths directly caused by Corona in … Continue reading

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World Health Organization praises Sweden for coronavirus response resisting shutdowns

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/world-health-organization-praises-sweden-for-coronavirus-response-resisting-shutdowns During April, Sweden has had about 30% excess deaths, compared to Expectation. However, when Corona finally is over and done with, I’m willing to bet – with current odds 10:1 – that on an annual basis, the number of … Continue reading

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Sweden Corona strategy explained

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Corona – trends for daily increments

Below trends for daily increments of number of confirmed and number of deceased for a set of countries. The dashed black line is a running window of length 15, displaying the overall smoothed trends, that is, “smoothing” out daily fluctuations. … Continue reading

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The Swedish Exception?

Originally posted on Behavioural Public Policy Blog:
Erik Angner & Gustaf Arrhenius Stockholm University & Institute for Futures Studies   It is still too early to determine which national responses to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic worked, and which ones did…

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The Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithm, implemented in Python

I’ve been using MCMC for quite a few years now, but always as a “Black Box”, that is, I’ve used tools such as PYMC or Stan, that implement different MCMC algorithms.  Until now, I’ve never opened up the Black Box, … Continue reading

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Corona gambling – using techniques from the gambling industry for prediction of epidemics

One thing that surprises me is that so far, to my knowledge, none of the established bookmakers such as Unibet, have offered people to bet on various Corona-related outcomes, e.g. the number of daily cases of confirmed, or even the … Continue reading

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Corona : “Breaking News” – US showing initial signs of containing the outbreak

[Sorry for the media-inspired headline… 🙂  but since all media outlets use “Breaking News”, even when the phenomena they report on is pure random noise, I thought that I’d use the same phrase to present something that _might_ actually be … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – not looking good

The weekly increment of number of confirmed per million and number of deaths per million are still increasing – the number of deaths agressively so ! – despite Sweden now beeing in 7th week since the number of confirmed hit … Continue reading

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Corona – neither US nor Sweden show ‘signature’ of decline yet

Looking at the Expected Number of Weekly Deaths against actual number of weekly deaths for those countries that now seem to have contained the virus, reveals a clear ‘signature’. Let’s look at that ‘signature’ for a few such countries: Italy: … Continue reading

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