Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
Ethics
"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Tag Archives: Matplotlib
Covid-19 Sweden: A summary
Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus. People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Economy, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics
4 Comments
Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate
It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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Corona : slowing down…?
Some further analysis on Corona, with data up and including yesterday. First, let’s look at the global spread: The first of these plots has linear (lin/lin) scale, and should be familiar from any of the many sites that post data … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, Python, Research, Scipy, Society, Statistics
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Tour de Ski Final climb – does age matter for performance ?
In an earlier post, I analyzed data from the Marcialonga Ski race. Marcialonga is one of the classic long distance ski races, where both elite’ as well as amateurs compete together. In fact, the vast majority of the competitors in … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Math, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, SNA, sports, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, sports, Statistics
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Bayesian Linear Regression with PYMC
Python, Pandas & PYMC example on Bayesian Linear Regression, adopted from Richard McElreath’s “Statistical Rethinking” class, where he uses R as modeling language instead of PYMC. Data in a csv-file describe various attributes such as weight, height, age, gender etc … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball
As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, Machine Learning, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Gambling, Machine Learning, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, Simulation, sports, Statistics, Technology
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Bayesian Multi-predictor Regression – Valet2018
[Continuing my exploration of the Swedish election results, but I thought this might be of interest also for those of you not very interested in the Swedish elections, simply because the potential MatStat’s insights – thus, the text is in … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Big Data, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Numpy, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Research, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, Statistics, Val2018
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PYMC – Markov Chain Monte Carlo regression – canonical example
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, Statistics
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Val2018 Bayesian Inference – sammanfattning
Nu är ju inte den slutgiltiga rösträkningen klar, men resultatet ur ett statistiskt / matematiskt perspektiv är ändå så stabilt att jag väljer att summera mina resultat redan nu. I graferna nedan har jag använt mig av samtliga opinionsinstituts prognoser … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Functional Stupidity, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, Society, Statistics, Sverige, Val2018
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Val2018 – sista prognosen
Första grafen: Bayesian Inference över samtliga opinionsinstituts mätningar augusti-september 2018. Andra grafen: samma rådata som ovan, obearbetat. Stora skuggade stapeln för respektive parti anger valresultatet 2014. Svarta tunna staplarna är 89:e percentilen.
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, Python, Statistics, Sverige, Val2018
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 