Monthly Archives: January 2018

What is life ? Probably caused by randomness, energy transfer and the second law of thermodynamics.

I just managed finishing Dan Brown’s latest novel, “Origin”. It’s hard for me to read Dan Brown, since IMO he writes the same book over and over again, albeit in slightly different settings. And his stereotypical main protagonists are to … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference for upcoming elections

In a couple of previous posts, I’ve tried to wear out my swedish speaking audience with predictions regarding the upcoming national elections, using Bayesian Inference. This post will be a bit more technical, perhaps of interest for a larger audience … Continue reading

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Val2018 – Prognosuppdatering

Fortfarande samma data, dvs Sentios opinionsundersökningar, men dels lite tweakning av den Bayesianska inferensmodellen, och dessutom förstorad skala på grafiken. Som synes av graferna, så ger ett 95% konfidensintervall ett brett resultat, för brett för att vara till verklig nytta. … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos mha Bayesian Inference för samtliga riksdagspartier

Så, nu har mitt program tuggat sig igenom datat för samtliga 8 riksdagspartier, och för varje parti tagit fram en prognos över partiets röstandel i det kommande valet i september. Prognoserna är gjorda med “Bayesian Inference”, dvs en statistisk metod … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos Kristdemokraterna & Liberalerna

Min “Bayesian Inference Engine” 0.8 rapporterar för Kristdemokraterna och Liberalerna följande: KD ser enligt modellen ut att få mellan 2.0 – 4.0% Sannolikheten att KD ramlar ur riksdagen är enligt modellen 76%. (Dock skall man alltid komma ihåg Kamrat 4%-effekten, … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos mha Bayesian Inference

(For my non-swedish readers – sorry, but this article is in swedish, and probably not much of interest to you anyway, being about the upcoming swedish elections. In case you are looking for general info on Bayesian inference, there are … Continue reading

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Bayesian inference – ratio land/water for earth

In a series of videos, Richard McElreath gives a tutorial on Bayesian statistics. Above video chapter presents the problem of determining the ratio of land/water for earth, by tossing an inflatable globe multiple times, and recording each landing, land or … Continue reading

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Bayesian Data Analysis

I found this absolutely brilliant tutorial by Rasmus Bååth on Bayesian Data Analysis and Bayesian Inference. I don’t know Rasmus, but he’s really good at explaining this stuff – highly recommended if you’d like to learn about practical use of Bayesian … Continue reading

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Bayesian Balls

Suppose we are to play a game. The game consists of you being blindfolded, and then rolling a ball, let’s call this first ball the “black” ball, onto a table, which we assume being perfectly flat. (To keep things as … Continue reading

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Probability of a random man/woman pair where the woman is taller than the man ?

Experience might perhaps tell us that in most couples, the man typically is taller than the woman.  But what’s the probability for having things the other way around, i.e. the lass being taller than the lad? Given the below statistics … Continue reading

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