Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
Ethics
"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Tag Archives: Simulation
Corona Sweden – Herd Immunity matters
Sweden, and particularily the Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, as well as his predecessor/mentor Johan Giesecke, have received huge amounts of critizism for the “Swedish Strategy” fighting Corona. A key component of Tegnell’s & Giesecke’s rationale for not recommending Lockdown … Continue reading
Posted in Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
Tagged Epidemics, Probability, Python, Simulation
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Corona outbreak – why isolation of infected people matters
Just hacked a simple simulation on the spread and effects of a virus, like the Corona virus that is in voque as we speak. The model is very simple, with the following assumptions/constants: The population size is constant, in the … Continue reading
Posted in Big Government, Epidemics, Probability, Simulation
Tagged Epidemics, Probability, Simulation
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Using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on Italian Serie A Fotball
As my old timer readers know, I’be been using Bayesian Inference to predict and bet on various sporting events, such as FIFA World Cup, and IIHF World Championships. With some success. When the Italian premier division started for about a … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, Machine Learning, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Gambling, Machine Learning, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, Simulation, sports, Statistics, Technology
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Capturing NMEA sentences over WiFi using Python
In order to figure out how the NMEA-WiFi Gateway deals with clients, e.g. if it expects any “handshake” or any other communication setup protocol, I decided to write a simulator mimicing the gateway, and then using iRegatta 2 from Zifago … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Maritime Technology, Nautical Information Systems, NMEA, Numpy, performance, Python, Simulation, TCPIP
Tagged Communication, Data Analysis, iRegatta2, Network, NMEA, Numpy, performance, programming, Python, Simulation, sports, TCP/IP, Technology
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Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?
As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships. By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Finance, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Probability, programming, Python, Science, Simulation, sports, Statistics
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Bayesian Inference – what good is the Prior, anyway…?
A brief example on the effect of Bayesian priors (I’m going to use my Ice Hockey Championship Prediction hack under development for this example): Assume you would like to bet on the outcome of some particular game, for instance, Sweden … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Gambling, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Gambling, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Prediction, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, sports, Statistics
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Predicting the outcome of World Championships in Ice Hockey using Bayesian Inference
Just for fun, I thought I’d implement a Bayesian “statistical inference engine” for some sports tournament. For whatever reason, I came to choose ice hockey world championships, training my inference engine on data from the 2016 tournament, and testing its … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Big Business, Big Data, Data Analytics, Gambling, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Big Business, Data Analysis, Gambling, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, sports, Statistics
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Bayesian Linear Regression with PYMC, part II
In the previous post we looked at a simple linear regression between (simulated) human heights and weights. In that example, the regression was truly ‘linear’, in that the predictor variable only occured in its first power, to provide a linear regression … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Probability, PYMC, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, LinearRegression, Probability, PYMC, Simulation, Statistics
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Bayesian Linear Regression with PYMC
Is there a relationship between human height and weight…? Probably. But what does that relationship look like ? Those kinds of questions can be answered by Linear Regression. Below an example, using simulated data for weights,heights etc: import numpy as … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, LinearRegression, Matplotlib, MCMC, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
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Python,Pandas, Statsmodels: Linear Regression – dealing with categorical data
Sometimes your explanatory variables are not numeric, but categorical. Typical example: “Gender” – which used to be binary, and since I’m an old man, I will continue regarding it as binary… 😉 To handle categorical data in Linear Regression, we … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Numpy, Probability, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Python, Simulation, Statistics, Statsmodels
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 