Category Archives: Society

Homicide by firearms – statistics country by country

I wanted to experiment a bit with a for me previously unknown Python library, “Beautiful Soup”, which is an html and xml parser. So I used the Soup to grab data from a Wikipedia page, and massaged it a bit … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – KD ramlar ur Riksdagen

Har nu uppdaterat både datat och min Bayesian Inferencemodell, datat genom att lägga till siffrorna från samtliga övriga opinionsinstitut, och modellen körs numera i Stan, ett domänspecifikt språk för statistiska analyser. Efter en körning av samtliga publicerade opinionsundersökningar sedan valet … Continue reading

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Bayesian Inference for upcoming elections

In a couple of previous posts, I’ve tried to wear out my swedish speaking audience with predictions regarding the upcoming national elections, using Bayesian Inference. This post will be a bit more technical, perhaps of interest for a larger audience … Continue reading

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Val2018 – Prognosuppdatering

Fortfarande samma data, dvs Sentios opinionsundersökningar, men dels lite tweakning av den Bayesianska inferensmodellen, och dessutom förstorad skala på grafiken. Som synes av graferna, så ger ett 95% konfidensintervall ett brett resultat, för brett för att vara till verklig nytta. … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos Kristdemokraterna & Liberalerna

Min “Bayesian Inference Engine” 0.8 rapporterar för Kristdemokraterna och Liberalerna följande: KD ser enligt modellen ut att få mellan 2.0 – 4.0% Sannolikheten att KD ramlar ur riksdagen är enligt modellen 76%. (Dock skall man alltid komma ihåg Kamrat 4%-effekten, … Continue reading

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Val 2018 – prognos mha Bayesian Inference

(For my non-swedish readers – sorry, but this article is in swedish, and probably not much of interest to you anyway, being about the upcoming swedish elections. In case you are looking for general info on Bayesian inference, there are … Continue reading

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Machine Learning – results

So, I reached the point where my Neural Network , after a couple of thousand training iterations, is capable of correctly identifying and separating different categories of input into their corresponding classes. More specifically, as “targets”, I’ve chosen a number … Continue reading

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Demographics simulation

There’s some interesting reading about demographics and Global birthrates: as you might have learned from the news, the birthrates in meny advanced (mostly western) countries are declining, in some places to such low levels that should the trend continue, those populations … Continue reading

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