Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
Ethics
"Veritas vos liberabit"
"The comes a time when one must take a position that is neither safe, nor politic, nor popular, but one must take it because it is right." -- Dr. Martin Luther King
"Rättvisa handlar inte om lika utfall, utan om lika spelregler" -- Alice Teodorescu
“The mediocre teacher tells. The good teacher explains. The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires.” ― William Arthur Ward
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -- John Maynard Keynes
""Don't attribute to stupidity what can be adequately explained by a contract." -- Anonymous
"Without deviations from the norm, progress is not possible" -- Frank Zappa
"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy and they in turn must study those subjects so that their children can study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain." -- John Adams, Americas II president
"In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing." -- Edmund Burke
"Being normal is being merely average" -- Shawn Achor
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” -- Upton Sinclair
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Tag Archives: Statistics
Fooled by probability – Monty Hall Problem
“You made a mistake, but look at the positive side. If all those Ph.D.’s were wrong, the country would be in some very serious trouble.” Everett Harman, Ph.D. U.S. Army Research Institute Probability is a terrible branch of science, I … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics
Tagged Monty Hall, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, Python, Statistics
3 Comments
Covid-19 Sweden: A summary
Sweden has been painted as the Black Sheep of the international community with respect to its ways to deal with the Covid-19 virus. People and orginizations around the world were very quick to paint Sweden as the Sodom & Gomorra … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Politik, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics, Sverige
Tagged Bayes, Economy, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Politics, Probability, PYMC, Python, Society, Statistics
4 Comments
Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate
It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, Matplotlib, MCMC, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
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Gender Bias – but not the way you’d think : Simpson’s Paradox strikes again!
I’ve previously touched upon Simpson’s Paradox and the (for statisticians!) famous example fromUniversity of California Berkeley, where it indeed looked like that the admission board favored men over women: while 44% of male applicants got admitted, only 35% of the … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Probability, PYMC, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, MCMC, Probability, PYMC, SImpson's Paradox, Statistics, UCB
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Fooled by Averages and Ignorant of Uncertainty – Bayesian Inference to assistance
As a follow up to my previous posts [1,2,3] on the danger’s of relying upon averages, and Simpson’s paradox, which is a consequence of misused averaging, here’s yet another angle on the same topic. Let’s first resume with the baseball … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Data Analysis, Gambling, MCMC, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
3 Comments
Corona Sweden – Excess Deaths jan 1st – May 15th
Fresh numbers from the government statistics bureau SCB, on excess deaths year-to-date reveal that April 2020 was the deadliest month in 20 years. However, relative to population, more people died in January 2000 compared to April 2020. Total number of … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Epidemics, Statistics
Tagged Data Analysis, Epidemics, Statistics
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Deeper look into Simpson’s Paradox – be very careful with averages!
A while ago, I did a quick post on Simpson’s Paradox, in context of Corona and R0-values. Here we are going to look a bit deeper into the paradox. Why ? Because it has some very important implications in any … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Statistics
Tagged Data Analysis, Randomness, SImpson's Paradox, Statistics
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Corona Weekly Trends US & Sweden : Actual vs Expected deaths – Sweden now third consecutive week of decline in deaths
Both US and Sweden continue demonstrating consistent decrease of weekly number of deaths. However, for Sweden, the weekly number of confirmed increased slightly, from 3745 to 3942 during the past 7-day period, which comparing to other countries with an overall … Continue reading
Posted in Data Analytics, Epidemics, Probability, PYMC, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Epidemics, MCMC, Probability, PYMC, Statistics
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Simpson’s Paradox
As noted previously, e.g. in this post, care must be taken with statistics… From Unherd.com: Simpsons Paradox & R0 Thanks to Richard McElreath’s Baysian Inference class, I happened to have the data from the example on Simpson’s Paradox in the … Continue reading
Posted in Epidemics, Statistics
Tagged Confounding statistical control, Epidemics, Statistics
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How to mislead with statistics : Fooled by Randomness
Since many people are now, due to the Corona pandemic, exposed to, and interested in statistics for the first time, I’d thought I’d show how easy it is to both mislead, as well as misunderstand, statistics. I’ve borrowed part of … Continue reading
systems perestroika - éminence grise 