Category Archives: Bayes

Corona Sweden : Probability of dying per age group

Just for fun, hacked a simple Bayesian Model* to figure out how the probability of dying has changed for a few age groups Jan-Jun 2020, compared to the average of the same period 2015-2019.  (In case anyone wonders why on … Continue reading

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Corona US – republican vs democratic states

First, I don’t know anything about US politics, and frankly, I don’t care, but as an interesting example on data analysis, if nothing else, below is a graph showing Corona deaths_per_million, where US states are categorised into Republican vs Democratic, … Continue reading

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Corona – Latitude matters (!)

I was pointed towards looking into the possible impact of Latitude – yes, that’s right! – on Corona related deaths by Ivor Cummins, twitter handle @FatEmperor, who is very much involved in clearing up the pseudo-scientific mess the world has … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden : Infection Fatality Rate

It’s been a while ago since I ran my MCMC-hack to estimate the Swedish Infection Fatality Rate, main reason being that each run takes an awful lot of computing time, around 10h, to get the MCMC to converge… and during … Continue reading

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Bayes rule illustrated by a table

I just found this excellent illustration of Bayes Rule, in a book “Bayes’ Rule with Python, by James V. Stone, and thought I’d share it here, as a follow-up to earlier posts on Bayes rule, e.g. this one. Assume we … Continue reading

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Did COVID-19 infections decline before UK lockdown? Simon N. Wood, University of Bristol, UK

New research on Covid-19 provides evidence on the futility of strict Lockdowns “What the results show is that, in the absence of strong assumptions, the currently most reliable data strongly suggest that the decline in infections in England and Wales … Continue reading

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MCMC “Internals” – fitting the data

Lately, I’ve been puzzling over how exactly MCMC fits the data of the likelihood, that is, how exactly is that fitting done by the various tools implementing MCMC. So, this post is maily about MCMC Internals, not about how to … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden: Weekly Deaths now below Average 2015-2019

Data from SCB.se up until June 2’d. For the first time in 11 weeks, the number of weekly deaths – all deaths, not just those registered as Corona related –  is now below average of 2015-2019. Trend is consistently downwards … Continue reading

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Bayes Rule for Poets and other Mathematical Virgins* :-)

[ * The title alludes to a book titled “Higher Mathematics for Poets & other Mathematical Virgins” by Tönis Tönisson, a book that for many many moons ago got me to appreciate mathematics in depth] If you are anything like … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – Expected vs Actual Deaths – an anomaly

Sweden is different : not only in “strategy”, but also with respect to the pattern of weekly deaths: while all other countries that have reached the inflection point (at least of the handful I monitor closely) show – after having … Continue reading

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