Tag Archives: Math

Bayesian A/B-testing, part II

Continuing my example by examining how the different assumptions – yes, in any model there are always assumptions, explicit or implicit – of the model impact the end result, that is, the prediction of the sought after signup-rate, a.k.a our posterior … Continue reading

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Bayesian inference – ratio land/water for earth

In a series of videos, Richard McElreath gives a tutorial on Bayesian statistics. Above video chapter presents the problem of determining the ratio of land/water for earth, by tossing an inflatable globe multiple times, and recording each landing, land or … Continue reading

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Bayesian Data Analysis

I found this absolutely brilliant tutorial by Rasmus Bååth on Bayesian Data Analysis and Bayesian Inference. I don’t know Rasmus, but he’s really good at explaining this stuff – highly recommended if you’d like to learn about practical use of Bayesian … Continue reading

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Probability of a random man/woman pair where the woman is taller than the man ?

Experience might perhaps tell us that in most couples, the man typically is taller than the woman.  But what’s the probability for having things the other way around, i.e. the lass being taller than the lad? Given the below statistics … Continue reading

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How do casinos make money? Expected Value explained

Ever played roulette ? Or any other game, such as black jack, or any other of those on offer in casinos ?  If not, good for you, because from a mathematical point of view, all these games are set up … Continue reading

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Hypothesis testing in Python – alpha,beta,Effect & Power

Suppose you’d like to conduct an experiment determining whether a new drug is effective to combat some disease. Let’s say that you have a control group and a test group of test subjects, where the test group receives your drug … Continue reading

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Statistics – lies, damn lies,part II: “Cancer rates in your county are more than factor 18 above national average!”

My previous post, on how statistics can, if not carefully presented and analyzed, give misleading conclusions can be further illustrated by a variant of the problem presented in that previous post: in the previous simulation, the overall population of 1.000.000 … Continue reading

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Lies,damn lies, statistics – community cancer rates

Statistics is an interesting topic – it can illuminate as well as it can confuse. Sometimes, statistics do mislead unintentionally, i.e. the presenter has done a (honest) mistake. Other times, less honest presenters can take advantage of the fact that … Continue reading

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Confidence Intervals in Python

Suppose you are interested in finding out the mean weight of all Sumo wrestlers in Japan. Or the average gas consuption of Korean made automobiles… Why…? No idea, but that sort of statistics might be of interest, for someone, at … Continue reading

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Central Limit Theorem illustrated

A fundamental theorem of statistics is the Central Limit Theorem, which basically states that the averages (means) of a large number of samples drawn from any population converges towards a normal distribution. The graph above demonstrates this theorem: the blue … Continue reading

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