Tag Archives: Math

Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey Worlds – Bets for games of May 5th

Summary I’m using mathematical & statistical methods, more specifically, Bayesian Inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, simulation and Probabilistic Programming, attempting to predict the game outcomes of the upcoming Ice Hockey World Championships, starting May 4th. Based on the findings of … Continue reading

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Bayesian Prediction – wanna bet…? Putting your money where your mouth is…

[A disclaimer: I know virtually nothing about contemporary ice hockey, my interest faded when Börje Salming decided to put his skates on the shelf for a couple of decades ago, so I have not included any personal hockey insights into … Continue reading

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Nash equilibrium explained

Nash equilibrium explained

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Tiny Data – Bayesian Dirty Socks Revisited (Bayesian Inference using MCMC)

For some time ago, I posted an article on estimating the total number of socks in your laundy machine, after initially  having pulled out 11 odd (non-pair) socks.  The post was inspired by Rasmus Bååth’s posting where he uses R … Continue reading

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Bayesian A/B-testing, part II

Continuing my example by examining how the different assumptions – yes, in any model there are always assumptions, explicit or implicit – of the model impact the end result, that is, the prediction of the sought after signup-rate, a.k.a our posterior … Continue reading

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Bayesian inference – ratio land/water for earth

In a series of videos, Richard McElreath gives a tutorial on Bayesian statistics. Above video chapter presents the problem of determining the ratio of land/water for earth, by tossing an inflatable globe multiple times, and recording each landing, land or … Continue reading

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Bayesian Data Analysis

I found this absolutely brilliant tutorial by Rasmus Bååth on Bayesian Data Analysis and Bayesian Inference. I don’t know Rasmus, but he’s really good at explaining this stuff – highly recommended if you’d like to learn about practical use of Bayesian … Continue reading

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Probability of a random man/woman pair where the woman is taller than the man ?

Experience might perhaps tell us that in most couples, the man typically is taller than the woman.  But what’s the probability for having things the other way around, i.e. the lass being taller than the lad? Given the below statistics … Continue reading

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How do casinos make money? Expected Value explained

Ever played roulette ? Or any other game, such as black jack, or any other of those on offer in casinos ?  If not, good for you, because from a mathematical point of view, all these games are set up … Continue reading

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Hypothesis testing in Python – alpha,beta,Effect & Power

Suppose you’d like to conduct an experiment determining whether a new drug is effective to combat some disease. Let’s say that you have a control group and a test group of test subjects, where the test group receives your drug … Continue reading

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