Tag Archives: Bayes

A bit more serious attempt to estimate COVID Vaccine Efficacy

A few days ago, I did a quick & dirty Bayesian estimate on Covid Vaccine Efficacy, based on Israeli data, given in a Twitter post (see details on the data in the link above). As stated in the earlier post, … Continue reading

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“I just tested Positive for Covid… Should I worry…?”

This post assumes the reader already understands a few concepts, such as Covid Incidence and the Sensitivity and Specificity of the Covid tests (or whatever tests, really). Since I’ve already described these concepts elsewhere, e.g. here, I’m not going to … Continue reading

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Covid Testing Europe – up to 6 tests per citizen, with 90% False Positives…?

I just web-scraped the Covid-numbers from worldometers.info for a completely different purpose, but became absolutely flabbergasted when I happened to look at the Tests per Million numbers for Denmark: they have, according to Worldometers, performed almost 37 MILLION Covid tests, … Continue reading

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As predictable as sunrise

I’m been waiting for headlines like this to appear for a while now… with today’s media that never cares about truth nor reality, but only about click baiting, it was inevitable to arrive… Damn I didn’t bet on it… could … Continue reading

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COVID & Lockdown’s – the Signal & the Noise

For quite some time, there’s been various attempts to investigate whether Lockdown’s either work, or don’t. And as far as I know, the jury is still out on that question, at least if listening to the heated debate in media/social … Continue reading

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Estimated COVID IFR distributions

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Covid Sweden – status 2020-08-03

SCB.se just released their weekly preliminary stat’s on deaths all causes. However, before looking at that data, let’s take a look at how Covid has evolved in Sweden, based on the numbers from Johns Hopkins University: Something remarkable seems to … Continue reading

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Lockdowns – The Illusion of Controlling a Virus, part II

Just a brief addendum to part 1: Below a graph showing a Bayesian Linear Regression, using the OxCGRT index as predictor for deaths per million, for each individual country of the 14 countries I’ve been looking at lately: What’s interesting … Continue reading

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SWEDEN COVID-19 status July 27th

SCB.se just released their weekly preliminary numbers on all cause deaths, up until July 24th.  Since the numbers are preliminary, by previous experience we know that the last data point, representing July 17-24, will very likely be revised, slightly upwards. … Continue reading

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COVID-19 – are lockdowns effective…?

Using https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/ – an index that measures the stringency of measures taken by different governments to prevent the spread of Covid-19 – as predictor for deaths per million reveals that lockdowns are pretty much useless… Below chart based on data … Continue reading

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