Tag Archives: MCMC

Corona True Mortality Rate & percentage infected

It’s been a while ago since I ran my Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation on true mortality rate, so I did so last night. This time only accounting for the data from the past 30 days, reason being a hypothesis … Continue reading

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Corona Weekly Trends US & Sweden : Actual vs Expected deaths – now 4th consecutive week of decline in deaths

US: SWEDEN:

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Gender Bias – but not the way you’d think : Simpson’s Paradox strikes again!

I’ve previously touched upon Simpson’s Paradox and the (for statisticians!) famous example fromUniversity of California Berkeley, where it indeed looked like that the admission board favored men over women: while 44% of male applicants got admitted, only 35% of the … Continue reading

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Fooled by Averages and Ignorant of Uncertainty – Bayesian Inference to assistance

As a follow up to my previous posts [1,2,3] on the danger’s of relying upon averages, and Simpson’s paradox, which is a consequence of misused averaging, here’s yet another angle on the same topic. Let’s first resume with the baseball … Continue reading

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Corona Weekly Trends US & Sweden : Actual vs Expected deaths – Sweden now third consecutive week of decline in deaths

Both US and Sweden continue demonstrating consistent decrease of weekly number of deaths. However, for Sweden, the weekly number of confirmed increased slightly, from 3745 to 3942 during the past 7-day period, which comparing to other countries with an overall … Continue reading

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Corona Sweden – True Number of Infected

Several tests conducted globally during the past few days, such as this one from the French Pasteur Institute now report that the true number of infected is less than previously estimated. Now, the current estimates are around 4%. Which is … Continue reading

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Corona US & Sweden – How many infected are there, and what’s the true mortality rate, really…?

Short answer : nobody knows for sure. But we can actually do quite a bit better than that: for instance, there have been random testing done in several countries, all showing that there are vastly more people carrying the infection … Continue reading

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Corona weekly trends US & Sweden – Expected vs Actual Deaths

[UPDATE: nice to see that the official experts seem to agree… 🙂  ] US now looks like being on a stable track of decline, it’s the second consecutive week now with the Actual weekly deaths being significantly lower than Expectation, … Continue reading

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The Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithm, implemented in Python

I’ve been using MCMC for quite a few years now, but always as a “Black Box”, that is, I’ve used tools such as PYMC or Stan, that implement different MCMC algorithms.  Until now, I’ve never opened up the Black Box, … Continue reading

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Corona : “Breaking News” – US showing initial signs of containing the outbreak

[Sorry for the media-inspired headline… 🙂  but since all media outlets use “Breaking News”, even when the phenomena they report on is pure random noise, I thought that I’d use the same phrase to present something that _might_ actually be … Continue reading

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