Tag Archives: HOCKEY-2018

Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?

Posted on May 21, 2018 by swdevperestroika

As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships.  By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading →

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Scientific Gambling – Ice Hockey World Championships starting tomorrow

Posted on May 3, 2018 by swdevperestroika

The tournament is starting tomorrow with four games. From now on, future posts on this topic on the public Facebook group Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey World Championships 2018 only. So, I you want to continue following how my Bayesian Inference engine … Continue reading →

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Scientific gambling – How to identify potentially profitable odds/plays ?

Posted on April 30, 2018 by swdevperestroika

In all sports gambling, success or failure is determined by a number of factors, luck not being the least of them, since in any sport there are loads of “Unknown Unknowns“, which we could also call “Uncertainty”. And then there … Continue reading →

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Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey Worlds – identifying potentially exploitable games

Posted on April 30, 2018 by swdevperestroika

One of the most difficult aspects of dealing with lots of data, is to present the information obtained from various computations in a clear and meaningful way. For instance, in order to identify games where there is a potentially exploitable … Continue reading →

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Scientific Betting on Ice Hockey Worlds now on Facebook

Posted on April 27, 2018 by swdevperestroika

Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey World Championships 2018

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Scientific Gambling on Hockey Worlds – Expected profits from games of day 1 & 2

Posted on April 27, 2018 by swdevperestroika

An Expected Value-calculation gives the expected gains from my bets on the games played during the first two days of the tournament as follows: OUTCOME U_ODDS U_P P P_DELTA EV_PER_UNIT HOME AWAY CZE SVK DRAW 5.20 0.192308 0.243738 0.051430 0.267438 … Continue reading →

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Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey Worlds – Bets for games of May 5th

Posted on April 26, 2018 by swdevperestroika

Summary I’m using mathematical & statistical methods, more specifically, Bayesian Inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, simulation and Probabilistic Programming, attempting to predict the game outcomes of the upcoming Ice Hockey World Championships, starting May 4th. Based on the findings of … Continue reading →

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Bayesian Prediction – wanna bet…? Putting your money where your mouth is…

Posted on April 24, 2018 by swdevperestroika

[A disclaimer: I know virtually nothing about contemporary ice hockey, my interest faded when Börje Salming decided to put his skates on the shelf for a couple of decades ago, so I have not included any personal hockey insights into … Continue reading →

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