Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
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"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it." -- VoltaireSystems view
"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Monthly Archives: May 2018
Making a living as a Professional Scientific Gambler using Bayesian Inference…?
As my readers know, over the past few weeks I’ve been conducting an experiment: Applying scientific betting on the just finished Ice Hockey World Championships. By “scientific”, I’m referring to the exclusive use of statistical and mathematical models, simulation, and … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Finance, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Probability, programming, Python, Science, Simulation, sports, Statistics
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Scientific Gambling – Ice Hockey World Championships starting tomorrow
The tournament is starting tomorrow with four games. From now on, future posts on this topic on the public Facebook group Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey World Championships 2018 only. So, I you want to continue following how my Bayesian Inference engine … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Big Data, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, sports, Statistics
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Scientific Gambling – “House Advantage”
In previous post we looked at how Betting Shops, Casinos etc make money, fundamentally by ‘salting’ the odds just a tiny bit in their favor. Let’s use two very simple games to illustrate how this works, tossing coins and throwing dice. … Continue reading
Posted in Gambling, Math, Probability, Statistics
Tagged Gambling, Probability, sports, Statistics
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Scientific Gambling – how do betting shops make money….?
Betting shops are commercial businesses, that is, they want to and must make money in order to survive. Like any other business. So take a casino as an example: they make money – in the long run – by having … Continue reading
Posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Pystan, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged Bayes, Data Analysis, Gambling, Matplotlib, Numpy, Pandas, Probability, PYMC, Python, Scipy, sports, Statistics
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 