Category Archives: Epidemics

Corona Sweden – time to batten down the hatches…?

[Instructions on how to read the graph here] Second day in row now when the Expected Number of daily deaths for Sweden is way above where it should be, given how the growth process has evolved thus far.  That is, … Continue reading

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Corona – Expected Daily Deaths

Below Expected Daily Deaths distributions for: [‘India’,’Italy’,’Spain’,’Sweden’,’US’, ‘Korea, South’,’Netherlands’,’Canada’,’Germany’,’New York’] Info on how to read the plots can be found here.

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Corona death numbers increasing – reason to panic…?

[UPDATE 2020–04-02 Added Violinplot for US. Graphs for a bunch of other countries, plus New York State, can be found here] I’ve noticed that as soon as the number of reported confirmed or the number of reported deaths jump upwards … Continue reading

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Corona US : confirmed & mortality per state

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Corona – estimated true mortality rate 2020-04-01

Look here for instruction on how to read the Nomogram.

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Corona US states – gdp influence on spread

Looks like GDP has an inpact on both number of confirmed and number of dead. Perhaps a spurious correlation, or then again, perhaps not… Below graphs show regression for confirmed_per_million and deaths_per_million, over gdp, for US states [I’ve removed District … Continue reading

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Corona New York – it’s *really* extreme..!

New York is hit very hard by Corona, we know that. But exactly how hard…? Turns out it’s extremely hard: the number of confirmed corona cases per million habitants in New York is 6 (!) standard deviations over US mean…! … Continue reading

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Corona – New York compared to 10 Countries

New York has been hit hard by Corona. However, it seems that the growth rate  as well as the death rate are now quickly slowing down.

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Bayesian Inference – Corona (Technical)

[This is a technical post. Those of you mainly interested in the daily Corona numbers may want to skip this] Now, after about a month of basically full time Data Analysis of the Corona statistics, perhaps it’s a good point … Continue reading

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Corona – estimation of true mortality rate, as of 2020-03-29

Courtesy of my friend Joe Marasco, here’s an update to the Nomogram previously explained here.  

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