Independent Dissident. I don’t follow “The Science” (TM). I follow the Data. –“When there is no such thing as truth, you can’t define reality. & when you can’t define reality, the only thing that matters is power.” — Maajid Nawaz
Don’t follow the herd, follow your own internal compass
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"Our organization was designed for a problem that no longer existed; we had brought an industrial age force to an information-age conflict." --Stan McChrystal- A/B Testing
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Tag Archives: A/B Testing
A bit more serious attempt to estimate COVID Vaccine Efficacy
A few days ago, I did a quick & dirty Bayesian estimate on Covid Vaccine Efficacy, based on Israeli data, given in a Twitter post (see details on the data in the link above). As stated in the earlier post, … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, MCMC, PYMC
Tagged A/B Testing, Arviz, Bayes, PYMC
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Size Matters, particularly in prediction
A follow-up on my previous post on statistical significance and hypothesis-testing: Let’s say we pull a number of samples, as in the previous post, from both a control group and a test group. Let’s also say that for the samples from … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Probability, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analysis, Probability, Simulation, Statistics
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Lies,damn lies, statistics,predictions – the world is more random than you might think…
For a number of years ago, John Ionnidis published a paper claiming to prove that most research papers are in fact wrong. That is, the findings of many/most research papers can actually not be reproduced by other, independent teams. According … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Driven Management, Numpy, Probability, Python, Research, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Evidence Based Decision Making, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, Python, Research, Simulation, Statistics
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A/B-testing on trendline data using Bayesian Inference
Asume we are in the process of doing evidence based testing of two competing strategies, “A” and “B”, and we want to evaluate these competing strategies over several days, weeks, months or whatever timespan we have decided upon. That is, … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Numpy, Probability, Python, Simulation, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Probability, Python, Statistics
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Bayesian A/B-testing, part III
This final part on Bayesian A/B-testing will continue looking at the various assumptions, implicit or explicit, that always are in play when building statistical models. In part II, we looked at what impact larger data sets have on our inferences, … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, performance, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
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Bayesian A/B-testing, part II
Continuing my example by examining how the different assumptions – yes, in any model there are always assumptions, explicit or implicit – of the model impact the end result, that is, the prediction of the sought after signup-rate, a.k.a our posterior … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Behavioral Economics, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Math, Matplotlib, Numpy, Probability, Python, Simulation, Statistics
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A/B-testing with Bayesian Inference
The example Inspired by Rasmus Bååth’s lectures on Bayesian Inference, I’ve implemented a simple Python example demostrating how Bayesian Inference can be used for A/B-testing, that is, evidence based testing. This methodology, i.e. A/B-testing, is useful in most domains, e.g. … Continue reading
Posted in A/B Testing, Bayes, Behavioral Economics, Big Data, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Math, Numpy, performance, Probability, Pystan, Python, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
Tagged A/B Testing, Bayes, Data Analysis, Numpy, Pandas, performance, Pystan, Python, Scipy, Simulation, STAN, Statistics
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systems perestroika - éminence grise 