I’m using mathematical & statistical methods, more specifically, Bayesian Inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, simulation and Probabilistic Programming, attempting to predict the game outcomes of the upcoming Ice Hockey World Championships, starting May 4th.
Based on the findings of my computations, I’m betting, and thus putting some Skin-In-The-Game, on selected high odds games.
To summarize my betting strategy: take a lot of calculated risk by only betting on high odds games, thereby expecting to loose most of the bets, but the few expected wins at high odds will hopefully compensate for the many losses. Hedge where Bayesian Inference indicate so.
Bets placed for May 5th’s games
Games, Bets & Unibet Odds
- NOR – LAT, @ DRAW, odds : 4.00
- SUI – AUT, @ DRAW, odds : 5.50
- SUI – AUT, @ AUT WIN, odds : 6.75
- CZE – SVK, @ DRAW, odds : 5.20
- CZE – SVK, @ SVK WIN, odds : 5.80
Previously placed bets
May 4th’s games
- RUS – FRA, @ DRAW, odds : 10.00
- SWE – BLR, @ DRAW, odds : 8.00
- SWE – BLR, @ BLR WIN, odds : 11.00
- GER – DEN, @ DEN WIN, odds : 3.20
- GER – DEN, @ DRAW, odds : 4.25