Scientific Gambling on Ice Hockey Worlds – Bets for games of May 5th

ai

Summary

I’m using mathematical & statistical methods, more specifically, Bayesian Inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, simulation and Probabilistic Programming, attempting to predict the game outcomes of the upcoming Ice Hockey World Championships, starting May 4th.

Based on the findings of my computations, I’m betting, and thus putting some Skin-In-The-Game,  on selected high odds games.

Strategy

To summarize my betting strategy: take a lot of calculated risk by only betting on high odds games, thereby expecting to loose most of the bets, but the few expected wins at high odds will hopefully compensate for the many losses. Hedge where Bayesian Inference indicate so. 

 

Bets placed for May 5th’s games

Games, Bets & Unibet Odds

  • NOR – LAT, @ DRAW, odds : 4.00
  • SUI – AUT, @ DRAW, odds : 5.50
  • SUI – AUT, @ AUT WIN, odds : 6.75
  • CZE – SVK, @ DRAW, odds : 5.20
  • CZE – SVK, @ SVK WIN, odds : 5.80

Previously placed bets

May 4th’s games

  • RUS – FRA, @ DRAW, odds : 10.00
  • SWE – BLR, @ DRAW, odds : 8.00
  • SWE – BLR, @ BLR WIN, odds : 11.00
  • GER – DEN, @ DEN WIN, odds : 3.20
  • GER – DEN, @ DRAW, odds : 4.25

 

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in AI, Bayes, Big Data, Business, Data Analytics, Data Driven Management, Gambling, HOCKEY-2018, Math, Numpy, Probability, PYMC, Python, Statistics and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s