Corona – let’s make a bet, or two..

Since I’m doing a lot of predictions, most of them based on Bayesian Inference, some of them based on intuition…

Let’s put some skin-in-the-game….let’s make a few bets regarding the outcomes for 2020:

Bet 1:

The total number of deaths directly caused by Corona in Sweden will not exceed 10000.

Professor Neil Ferguson, Imperial College, on who’s prediction model many countries implemented strict lockdowns, predicted that Sweden by May 1st would have 40000 deceased… the actual number of deceased in Sweden on May 1st turned out to be 2653….

Bet 2:

The number of other deaths, such as heart & lung, cancer’s and mental illness deceases will increase, radically.

Bet 3:

The global mortality rate for Corona will not exceed 1%

Bet 4:

The countries who’ve chosen to implement Lockdown’s will suffer second, third and further waves of infections.

Anyone want to bet….?

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
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