During April, Sweden has had about 30% excess deaths, compared to Expectation.
However, when Corona finally is over and done with, I’m willing to bet – with current odds 10:1 – that on an annual basis, the number of excess deaths, directly caused by the virus, will be barely noticable, when comparing to a year with a severe flu. The excess deaths, directly caused by Corona, on an annual basis, will in all likelihood be within the margin of random variability.
Unfortunately, other kinds of deaths – caused by the society shutting down and the medical resources focusing all efforts on Corona – such as excess deaths in cancer, heart & lung deceases, mental health issues, suicide etc will most likely have increased significantly when we eventually look back at 2020.
That is, in all likelihood, Corona – or more correctly: the global response to Corona – will claim many more lives indirectly for a long time to come, than the virus ever claimed directly.
What is a fact, however, is that Sweden has failed utterly and completely in protecting all its vulnerable people, the risk groups, particularily its old people.
And that’s the main reason for the Swedish number of deaths per million being so much higher than for comparable countries.
But this unfortunate state of affairs has in fact very little to do with Corona itself – Corona was just the catalysator to activate and accelerate the process that has lead to all these deaths – but from years and decades of political decisions where resources to medical care in general, and care of elderly people in particular, have been allocated to other, more “Politically Correct” areas.