Corona weekly trends US & Sweden – Expected vs Actual Deaths

[UPDATE: nice to see that the official experts seem to agree… 🙂  ]

US now looks like being on a stable track of decline, it’s the second consecutive week now with the Actual weekly deaths being significantly lower than Expectation, that is, US now exhibits a clear “pattern of decline“:

US_violinplot_weekly

This decline can also be seen looking at the trends for growth of both number of confirmed and number of deaths (normalized by population):

weekly_conf_consolidated_sums_per_millionweekly__dead_consolidated_sums_per_million

From the above plots we can see that all the six countries are now in decline, that is, for all of them the weekly increment during the past week was less than the week before, for both confirmed as well as deceased.

Let’s look at Sweden’s Actual vs Expected weekly deaths:

Sweden_violinplot_weekly

The past week is the first week where Sweden exhibits significantly lower than Expected number of weekly deaths, that is, Sweden is now in the same position as US was a week ago – showing the initial signs of the “Signature” of consistent decline.

Below yet another perspective on the same trends:

weekly_increments_US

For US it looks like the weekly increase of confirmed has been fairly stable for 3 weeks now – the black smoothing window function being basically flat – while for Sweden the smoothing function still indicates growth, even if the rate of growth is declining.weekly_increments_Sweden

Thus, it now looks like US is past the worst, and that Sweden shows initial signs of getting the outbreak under control.

Finally, here’s New York:

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics, Organization, Probability, PYMC, Statistics and tagged , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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