SWEDEN : COVID DELTA is finally here – 42% increase in weekly “Cases”!

Look at that headlinescary, isn’t it ? 42% increase in cases from previous week…!

Let’s have a look:

weekly change [truncated y-axis for clarity]

Look at the top plot depicting “cases” : notice how the latest two weeks both are above 1, i.e. the weekly case count is higher than the preceding week: 23% and 42%, respectively. Surely a clear sign that the dreaded DELTA now is here to kill us all, or at least put us in ICU….?

Perhaps not… again, it’s important to distinguish between “Relative Shark & Absolute Penguin”, that is, looking at both relative as well as absolute numbers:

Below the weekly counts of cases, ICU’s and Deaths:

Covid event counts

I don’t know about you, but to me, there’s a world of difference in conclusions between the “42% increase!” type of headline I’m sure we are now going to see in media, and the conclusions to draw from the bottom graph.

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Data Analytics. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to SWEDEN : COVID DELTA is finally here – 42% increase in weekly “Cases”!

  1. Brad and Rachel Forwell says:

    “Relative Shark & Absolute Penguin,” LOL! The best line I’ve heard in weeks.

  2. Unfortunately, I can’t claim ownership of that line, I’ve borrowed it from my Stats-Guru, Richard McElreath.

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