## SWEDEN : Odds of dying before vs during Pandemic (WARNING : this is a really morbid post, sensitive souls should not proceed…!)

Below stats on the odds of dying per age group, before Corona, vs during Corona.

The numbers in the graph are read as “one death per n persons”, where n is the number found in the table.

The table has a couple of assumptions, all of which makes Covid seem worse than it actually is:

• the Covid data is based on all Covid deaths since the first one in March 2020 up to April 30:th, 2021, that is, a period of more than a year, while the deaths before Covid are based on yearly avg. mortality rates 2015-2018. Thus, the Covid-numbers include not one but two of the typical seasonal peaks occuring for all respiratory viruses.
• The table also assumes that all Covid deaths are *in addition* to “normal” deaths. That is, the assumption is that had Covid not occured, the people who now died of/with Covid would not have died at all during the period.
• And of course, if you have been tested positive anytime up to 28 days before your death, you will be counted as Covid-Dead, even if you die because you were run over by a bus.

One way to make sense of these numbers is to consider a Roulette Table : a typical Roulette Table has 37 numbers, so the odds of you winning having placed a bet on a single number is 1 in 37. Similarly, in Russian Roulette, the odds of you killing yourself is 1 in 6, assuming a revolver with a 6 slots in the cylinder, with one live round and 5 blanks.

So, pick any age group in the table above, and compare the odds_dying_before_pandemic vs odds_dying_during_pandemic, and think of these as being revolvers with cylinders with n slots, where one of the slots has a live round, the rest being blanks. And once a year you are forced to pull the trigger…

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
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### 3 Responses to SWEDEN : Odds of dying before vs during Pandemic (WARNING : this is a really morbid post, sensitive souls should not proceed…!)

1. Brad and Rachel Forwell says:

This is cool. Just to clarify, the first column following the age groups is odds of dying during covid, while the column that follows (third column) is odds of dying before covid struck? Or do I have this backwards?

• The first column is odds before covid, the second during covid. The way to think about the numbers presented is to see them as denumerators, i.e. 1 / n, that is, the probability of death is 1 / n, where n is the number given in the table. So, for instance looking at the 60-69 age group, you’ll see that the probability of dying during the year was about 1 in 112 before covid, and 1 in 102 during covid (disregarding the fact that all the covid-numbers are derived from a period longer than a year)

2. Brad and Rachel Forwell says:

Got it now, and thanks for providing that explanation.

Shocking to see how close the numbers are between the two columns, but per your post’s title, it is even more shocking to see how the risk of mortality increases with age. Good Lord!