Risks when trying to optimize a Complex System (any Complex System) : Global vaccination during a pandemic might not be such a good idea…

“Complex systems are systems whose behavior is intrinsically difficult to model due to the dependencies, competitions, relationships, or other types of interactions between their parts or between a given system and its environment.”

If you ever tried to optimize a single component/parameter/output of a Complex System , you’ve seen the surprises such systems will throw at you, and you’ll have the prerequisite insight to understand what Bret & Heather discuss in the video, and why it is important. Extremely important!

Now, I’m *not* saying that the fundamental hypothesis of the Geert vanden Bossche paper that Bret and Heather are discussing *is* correct – at this point, nobody knows, least of all me – what I’m saying – echoing Bret & Heather – is that the implications IFF that hypothesis turns out to be true are so severe to humankind that it simply must be examined very carefully, regardless of sunk costs, without preexisting biases and hidden agendas, and not simply dismissed as “yet another conspiracy theory”, not before the hypothesis has been scientifically (by unbiased scientific agreement) proven false.

The Bossche paper can be found here. The gist of the paper is that it might be a very bad idea to force an extremely fast paced vaccination program upon the entire population of the world, *during* an ongoing pandemic – the overall result of such a strategy might end up being a virus that learns how to defeat *all* human immune system defense mechanisms. Basically, an arms race where the virus eventually will break the last remaining component of human immune defense. At which point the entire human race is in really deep shit…!

One thing that might speak for the hypothesis is that we already are seeing several fast evolving novel and more powerful mutations (“British”, “South African” etc) of the virus having arrived on the scene – exacly as the paper argues.

So, before you dismiss the hypothesis as yet another conspiracy theory or fake news – please do your homework and study the facts.

PS: I found this short article on the immune system helpful in parsing what’s discussed above

PPS: Found a youtube vid where Dr. Bossche himself explains his hypothesis. Worth watching:

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Data Analytics and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to Risks when trying to optimize a Complex System (any Complex System) : Global vaccination during a pandemic might not be such a good idea…

  1. Pingback: 2:00PM Water Cooler 6/15/2021 | naked capitalism

  2. Pingback: 2:00PM Water Cooler 6/15/2021 – Viral News Connection

Leave a comment