As predictable as sunrise

I’m been waiting for headlines like this to appear for a while now… with today’s media that never cares about truth nor reality, but only about click baiting, it was inevitable to arrive… Damn I didn’t bet on it… could have made a fortune…

A few days ago I posted this Tweet, predicting the arrival of alarmistic headlines regarding COVID in Sweden, and sure enough, 3 days later we are there.

So, let’s continue predicting things about COVID, in fact I’ve already done many predictions on that theme, e.g. here from April, but let’s do more:

Prediction for total (all cause) death toll 2020

Here’s my prediction for deaths per million, all causes, for full year 2020, that is, the prediction is about the upcoming 3 months, until December 31:st:

Cumulative deaths by date; actuals to the left of the vertical orange line, predicted to the right
Predicted 2020 full year deaths compared to 2015 – 2019

As you can see, I’m bold enough to predict total deaths being “slightly” less than e.g. the now Infamous Imperial College model by Professor Neil Ferguson, a model that forecasted 90.000 COVID deaths for Sweden…. Adding those 90000 COVID deaths to the normal ~90000 all cause deaths Sweden typically has would land us at a total death toll of about 180.000 (absolute numbers, corresponding to ~ 18000 deaths per M) for the full year, or about twice the normal…

Or the IMHE models coming up with numbers like Ferguson….

But what the heck, no guts, no glory…! So there we have it : I’m predicting the 2020 total death toll per million will end up in the range 8800 – 9500, with an expected value of 9100 deaths per million.

Let’s see early January whether my prediction turns out better or worse than Professor Ferguson’s…

Remember you’ve read it first here….

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Data Analytics and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s