Independent code review of the Imperial College’s Corona Model

Independent code review of Professor Feguson’s Corona model

This is indeed interesting reading.

For anyone who’s done any amount of professional coding, it’s clear – given that what the article claims is correct – that the robustness of the code is very questionable, and as a consequence of that, it’s results are very questionable.

As an example, the model predicted that Sweden by early May would have in excess of 40.000 deaths by Corona. The actual number is, as of yesterday, 3175.  That’s a difference of factor 12…

Unfortunately, even previous  research done by Professor Ferguson seems to have a solid track record of huge prediction errors, missing the target by orders of magnitude. 

Making prediction errors of an order of magnitude simply can’t be regarded as “Good Science”.

Still, this model was, and still is used by many countries  as the rationale for their Lockdown Corona strategies.

[UPDATE 20200509 – part two of the Code Review]

 

 

About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Data Analytics, development, Epidemics, software and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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