Corona – neither US nor Sweden show ‘signature’ of decline yet

Looking at the Expected Number of Weekly Deaths against actual number of weekly deaths for those countries that now seem to have contained the virus, reveals a clear ‘signature’. Let’s look at that ‘signature’ for a few such countries:



South Korea:Korea, South_violinplot_weekly




All these countries share the ‘signature’ of the number of actual deaths – shown by the red dot – having been below the median of Expected Number of Deaths, shown by the middle horizontal dashed line inside the Violin, for at least two consecutive weeks.

Both Italy and South Korea are now in their third consecutive week with actual deaths significantly under Expected Deaths, while Spain and Netherlands have two such weeks.

Furhermore, for all these countries, the consecutive drop started in week 5 (Netherlands) or week 6 (the other countries), week count started when the number of confirmed hit 1000.

For US and Sweden, that ‘signature’ is still missing:





Both US and Sweden are now in their 6th week, but neither does exhibit the signature of decline.

I’d say that the present week will be critical for both countries, if the number of actual deaths does not drop below the Expected value during this week, the fight against the virus seems to be going worse than for the other countries above.

And here’s the corresponding plot for New York:

New York_violinplot_weekly


About swdevperestroika

High tech industry veteran, avid hacker reluctantly transformed to mgmt consultant.
This entry was posted in Bayes, Data Analytics, Epidemics and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

1 Response to Corona – neither US nor Sweden show ‘signature’ of decline yet

  1. Joe Marasco says:

    Excellent signature.

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